54% of Americans said there is no mortgage rate at which they would feel comfortable selling their home, up 12 points from last year, per Bank of America
In June, U.S. home prices logged their weakest growth since 2023, rising at a slower pace than inflation and signaling a cooling housing market. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, national home prices increased just 1.9% year-over-year, while the Consumer Price Index advanced 2.7%. This marks the first time in years that housing appreciation has trailed inflation, a shift S&P’s Nicholas Godec described as “historically significant.”
The slowdown reflects what analysts are calling a “new equilibrium” for housing. Buyers remain strained by high—but easing—mortgage rates, elevated living costs due to tariffs, and a sluggish job market. While these pressures have dampened demand, they’ve also pushed mortgage rates slightly lower, helping July existing home sales rise 2%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing-home price stood at $422,400 in July, only 0.2% higher than a year earlier.
On a monthly basis, home prices slipped 0.3% after seasonal adjustments in June, suggesting that underlying demand remains weak. Analysts expect the housing cycle to mature into a phase where price growth matches inflation rather than the rapid gains of 2020–2022. This adjustment could mark the end of housing as a wealth engine, but it may also point to a healthier, more sustainable trajectory tied to economic fundamentals rather than speculative surges.
The trend is uneven across regions. Traditional industrial hubs are holding up better, supported by job growth, relative affordability, and demographic tailwinds. By contrast, pandemic-era hotspots like Tampa, Phoenix, and Dallas have cooled sharply as affordability wanes and investor demand fades. Analysts argue that while the slowdown represents a loss of the extraordinary gains seen during the housing boom, it could lay the groundwork for steadier long-term growth that better aligns with the broader economy.