750,000 federal employees are expected to be furloughed today, for a total of 1,500,000

The Trump administration is preparing to furlough about 550,000 federal workers on Wednesday if Congress does not act before government funding expires late Tuesday, amounting to less than one-quarter of the workforce—an unusually low share compared to past shutdowns.

At the same time, the White House has pledged to pursue large-scale layoffs if a shutdown occurs, though those would unfold through a separate process from furloughs, which only last until funding is restored. Over the past 15 years, administrations have generally anticipated sidelining between 35% and 40% of the federal workforce during shutdowns.

Through the Office of Management and Budget, the White House retains some flexibility in how shutdown impacts are applied. Federal workers funded outside annual appropriations, along with those essential to protecting life and property, are designated “exempted” or “excepted” and continue working—receiving backpay after the shutdown ends. All others are furloughed without pay, though following the record 35-day shutdown of 2018–2019, they too are now guaranteed backpay. Administrations have differed in how they decide which employees are furloughed and which continue working.

Much of the current shift stems from two agencies. In a shutdown this week, the Trump administration would keep the entire Internal Revenue Service operating with funds from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. By contrast, ahead of a possible funding lapse in 2024, the Biden administration had prepared to furlough more than half of the IRS. The Defense Department, meanwhile, would send home about 45% of its 741,000 civilian employees on Wednesday, compared with more than 100,000 additional furloughs it had planned last year.

Like other agencies under Trump, both the IRS and the Pentagon have already trimmed their workforces significantly in recent months.

Not every agency has updated its plan. Of the 30 largest agencies, 11 have not released new ones this year despite an Aug. 1 deadline set by OMB. In those cases, Government Executive relied on the most recent available documents.

Shutdown furlough plans also remain subject to change. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, some agencies increased their furlough numbers as the stoppage wore on, while others recalled employees as more functions came to be classified as exempted.