$9.2 trillion in Treasuries mature in 2025
The bond market is staring down an unprecedented supply wave. Treasury data shows that $9.2 trillion in marketable debt — nearly one-third of the entire Treasury market and close to a third of U.S. GDP — will mature in 2025, with roughly 55% to 60% coming due before July. Adding the Congressional Budget Office’s projected $1.9 trillion FY 2025 deficit, the government will need to sell more than $10 trillion in securities this year, a volume without precedent in modern markets. Much of this stems from pandemic-era borrowing that leaned heavily on short-dated bills, leaving about one-third of all outstanding debt rolling over every twelve months — and making federal financing costs sensitive to each auction.
Even so, average maturity remains historically long. The weighted average maturity is around seventy-two months, near a three-decade high, reflecting prior efforts to “term out” debt when rates were near zero. Still, the portion of bills maturing in a year or less has climbed back to roughly 21% from a low of 15% in 2021, highlighting the balancing act between securing longer-term funding and maintaining flexibility. Caps on longer-dated coupon auctions remain in place, so new cash needs are being filled through larger bill sales and the addition of a six-week benchmark, introduced in 2024, to help smooth short-term maturities.
The large numbers don’t stop in 2025. The CBO’s February forecast projects deficits in the 5% to 7% of GDP range for the next decade, adding about $21 trillion in borrowing through 2034. Under current trajectories, debt held by the public would grow from roughly $30 trillion today to more than $52 trillion by 2035, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio past 118% — well above its post–World War II peak. Servicing this debt is becoming more expensive: net interest costs exceeded $900 billion in FY 2024, are nearing $950 billion in 2025, and are projected to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, consuming an ever larger share of federal spending.
To manage rollover risk, the Treasury is staggering issuance and bolstering liquidity backstops. Its target is to keep bills near 20% of the total portfolio, and it has resumed regular buybacks — up to $4 billion a week in off-the-run bonds — to support liquidity. A one-time $59.5 billion buyback is planned around April tax season to ease cash flow volatility and limit sudden jumps in auction sizes. So far, the market has absorbed supply without major disruption: early 2025 bills have been clearing near a 5% yield, and most two- to ten-year notes have been pricing with minimal tails.