A recession in the US is unlikely, per Reuters polling

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three meetings in 2024, according to a slim majority of economists surveyed by Reuters. This projection marks one additional rate cut compared to predictions from the previous month, with many now believing a recession is unlikely.

The shift in expectations follows a weaker-than-anticipated July U.S. jobs report, which prompted interest rate futures traders to initially forecast as much as 120 basis points of cuts in 2024. However, those estimates have since decreased to around 100 basis points. Investors also pointed to a brief but intense market sell-off, triggered by the sudden rise of the Japanese yen and the unwinding of large leveraged positions, as another factor behind calls for aggressive rate cuts.

Although some Federal Reserve officials have hinted at forthcoming rate cuts, most economists in the Reuters poll conducted between August 14 and 19 did not foresee a rapid series of reductions. Recent economic data, including a strong retail sales report from the prior week, indicates that the economy is performing relatively well even as inflation continues to ease.

According to 54% of the 101 economists surveyed, the U.S. central bank is likely to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50%-4.75% by the end of 2024. Markets, which had earlier anticipated a half-percentage-point cut in September, now estimate a 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction next month.

Of the remaining respondents, 34 predicted two rate cuts this year, while one economist projected only a single reduction. Eleven participants forecast the Fed would implement cuts totaling 100 basis points or more.