"Before the year is out there’ll be a rate cut," US President Biden has stood by his prediction that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by the end of the year

"Before the year is out there’ll be a rate cut," US President Biden has stood by his prediction that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by the end of the year, per Bloomberg.

A third consecutive month of higher-than-expected inflation data dealt a fresh blow to Biden’s reelection prospects ahead of November’s election, raising concerns that voters could punish him over high prices and potentially delay the Federal Reserve rate cuts the president has anticipated.

Biden defended his economic record while acknowledging persistent inflation. “Look, we have dramatically reduced inflation from 9% down to close to 3%. We’re in a situation where we’re better situated than when we took office, where inflation was skyrocketing,” Biden added.

Traditionally, the White House refrains from commenting on Federal Reserve decisions, and the president has previously pledged to respect the bank’s independence. However, last month, he indicated he foresaw the central bank easing rates.

Wednesday’s data, however, makes it harder to envision the Fed delivering on rate cuts before the election, a move that would boost the stock market and make it easier for Americans to buy homes, cars, and service their debts.

Treasury two-year yields rose, and major groups in the S&P 500 retreated, signaling investor skepticism that the Fed will move in June. If the Fed cannot cut by July, its next meeting falls in September.

At that point, some economists believe the Federal Open Market Committee, the bank’s rate-setting panel, would wait until after the election to cut rates to avoid any appearance of trying to influence the outcome.

“One of Chair Powell’s responsibilities is to protect the public standing of the Fed,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon. “The closer the FOMC acts to the election, the more likely it is that the public will question the Fed’s intent.”

Earlier: Fed Rate-Cut Path Thrown for a Loop as Inflation Progress Stalls

This development is bad news for Biden, whose reelection hinges on energizing suburban swing voters who have seen mortgage prices soar during his tenure. The president has frequently predicted in recent weeks that the Fed would cut rates while hosting events designed to showcase his administration’s efforts to address rising housing costs.

Biden cannot afford for Americans to become more negative about their economic outlook, as he continues to lag behind former President Donald Trump in reelection polls. Despite robust employment during Biden’s tenure — including the addition of over 300,000 new jobs in March — corresponding inflation has increased anxiety among voters.

According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states last month, voters believed their personal financial situation was better under Trump by a 16-point margin. More than a third of voters cited the economy as the single most important issue to them, while less than a third believed the economy was on the right track.

Trump sought to capitalize on this advantage Wednesday morning in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“INFLATION is BACK—and RAGING! The Fed will never be able to credibly lower interest rates because they want to protect the worst President in the history of the United States!,” Trump said.