Bill Gates has said that generative AI has plateaued, and says GPT-5 will not be any better

In an interview with the German business newspaper Handelsblatt, the 67-year-old expressed his belief that there are ample reasons to think that GPT technology has hit a plateau. Gates acknowledged the possibility of being mistaken and diverged from the views at OpenAI, stating that, contrary to the expectations for GPT-5, he perceives the current generative AI to have reached a limitation. Referring to the leap from GPT-2 to GPT-4 as "incredible," Gates revealed his skepticism about the prospect of GPT-5 surpassing its predecessor.

During the interview, Gates also forecasted a notable enhancement in the accuracy of AI software coupled with a reduction in costs over the next two to five years. This, according to him, would lead to the creation of new and dependable applications. Interestingly, he anticipated an initial stagnation in development, asserting that with GPT-4, the company has reached a pinnacle, and he does not foresee GPT-5 outperforming it.

However, Gates added that in the short term, he sees significant potential in AI, anticipating that ongoing research will enhance its reliability and comprehensibility. He also highlighted the substantial benefits developing nations could reap from AI, citing the example of health advice provided through smartphones.

Responding to questions about the cost and reliability of AI, Gates acknowledged the high costs of some Nvidia AI chips, costing around $30,000 each, with considerable computing power and energy consumption. Despite the expense of training large language models, he noted a reduction in actual usage costs from ten cents to approximately three cents per query. Gates emphasized that costs related to computing power and semiconductors remain substantial.

Gates further shared his perspective on the potential of AI in healthcare, emphasizing its role in accelerating the development of drugs and vaccines. Despite existing reliability challenges, he envisions AI becoming integral to these critical areas.

Touching upon the concept of the AI black box and the limited understanding of its inner workings, Gates noted ongoing efforts to decode it. Regarding Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), he acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding its arrival, emphasizing its potential as a profound development for humanity.