By the end of the century, Social Security could face required benefit cuts of over 30%

The Social Security trust fund is projected to run out of reserves in just eight years, according to a report released Wednesday by the program’s trustees. Without intervention from Congress, more than 60 million retirees and their families would see their benefits reduced by 23%.

The new estimate moves the projected depletion date roughly nine months earlier than last year’s forecast. The change is largely due to a new law that expanded benefits for nearly 3 million retired public-sector workers whose past jobs weren’t covered by Social Security. In addition, the trustees revised down their expectations for future wage growth, payroll tax revenue, and birth rates.

Growing uncertainty about the program's future has led more Americans to claim Social Security earlier than in the past. Among them is 62-year-old Bill Armstrong, who recently filed for retirement benefits. “I figured I’d better get in before they raise the age,” he said.

A System Under Strain

At the heart of Social Security’s financial troubles is a demographic shift. With over 11,000 baby boomers turning 65 each day, the U.S. population is aging rapidly. As a result, there are fewer working-age adults paying into the system to support a growing number of beneficiaries.

While the trust fund built during the boom years still provides a cushion, that reserve is dwindling. Once it's depleted, payroll taxes alone will only cover about 77% of the benefits currently promised to retirees.

In contrast, the separate trust fund that supports disability payments is expected to remain solvent through at least 2099. If Congress were to merge the two funds — something that would require legislative action — the combined reserves would last until 2034. After that, across-the-board benefit cuts of around 19% would go into effect.

Calls for Action Grow Louder

Lawmakers could tackle the looming shortfall by raising taxes, trimming benefits, or pursuing a mix of both. The trustees emphasized the importance of early action, saying in a statement: “Acting sooner allows more options and a smoother transition, giving Americans time to adjust.”

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that congressional delay has already gone on too long. “At this point, any member of Congress without a plan to fix Social Security is shirking their duty to preserve the nation’s largest and most vital government program,” she said.