Canada's Fertility Rate Stays at Record Low 1.26 in 2025

Canada's demographic slide is not reversing. In 2025, Canada's total fertility rate was unchanged at 1.26 children per woman, identical to the all-time low observed in 2024. That keeps Canada well below the roughly 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain a population without immigration.

What the StatCan data shows

The general decline in the fertility rate began in 2009, with a sharper drop from 2017 to 2023, then a smaller decline in 2024 and a plateau in 2025.

The majority of Canadian provinces and territories, 8 of 13, recorded all-time low total fertility rates in 2025, including Newfoundland and Labrador at 1.08, Nova Scotia at 1.07 and Yukon at 1.02. For the first time, Yukon had the lowest rate of all the provinces and territories, a position previously held by British Columbia from 2013 to 2024.

Mothers are older than ever

The average age of mothers at childbirth has been continuously increasing for nearly five decades, reaching a new high of 31.9 years in 2025, up from 26.7 years in 1976.

Sociology professor Kate Choi at Western University noted that if women wait to have their first child, they have less time to have more kids, and the fertility rate declines. Choi pointed to economic uncertainty, housing unaffordability and an absence of work-life balance as contributors to the declining fertility rate.

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Canada in global context

Among 20 selected high-income countries in 2025, Canada had the seventh-lowest TFR. The United States led at 1.57 children per woman, followed by Iceland and France at 1.56 each, while South Korea posted the lowest at 0.80.

Canada's TFR was near the middle of this group for many years but began shifting toward the countries with the lowest fertility in 2018.

Why traders should care

A structurally low birth rate reshapes long-run demand: fewer kids means slower household formation, weaker demand for family housing, baby products and education, and heavier reliance on immigration to fill the labor force. It also skews the growth pie toward healthcare, elder care and productivity-enhancing tech.

Short term, the number itself is not a market mover. Longer term, it is a slow-burning macro input for Canadian banks, homebuilders and consumer names.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for demographic-sensitive names as this trend grinds on:

• TD and RY: Canadian banks whose long-term mortgage and consumer credit growth is tied to household formation and immigration flows.
• PG and KMB: baby-care and diaper exposure that softens as birth rates fall across developed markets.
• RKT: fertility and reproductive health via the Enfamil and IVF-adjacent product complex, worth watching as older-mother demographics shift demand.
• LLY: broader healthcare exposure benefits from an aging population skew that follows persistent low fertility.

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