Carfax has said recently that 30% of American cars were overdue for tire rotation and 19% running late for an oil change

The number of cars on U.S. roads has reached an all-time high—about 290 million light vehicles—and they’ve never been older. While part of the reason is positive—vehicles are now better made, with surpassing 100,000 miles becoming routine rather than exceptional—the average age of cars has risen dramatically. Thirty years ago, passenger vehicles averaged 8.4 years old; today, that figure has climbed to 13.6 years.

Less encouraging is the impact of economic pressures. Inflation, higher interest rates, and supply-chain disruptions have suppressed new vehicle sales. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the four-year rolling average for annualized sales is around 15.5 million, down from 17.7 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Mixed Picture for Auto Parts and Repairs

At first glance, the aging fleet should benefit auto parts retailers and repair services. New cars typically come with free dealership servicing, reliable original equipment tires, and minimal mechanical issues. But once cars hit the 4-to-11-year sweet spot, they usually receive significant care from their owners. However, despite the large number of vehicles in this age range, recent trends suggest that Americans are skimping on maintenance or opting for cheaper alternatives.

In May, shares of Monro, a leading tire chain, dropped 12% after it reported a sharp decline in adjusted same-store sales during its fiscal 2024 year. Management attributed the slump to financially strained low-to-middle-income consumers, who opted for budget tires amid an influx of off-brand imports. Spending on key services like brakes and shocks saw an even steeper decline.

In September, Genuine Parts, owner of Napa auto-supply stores, experienced its largest one-day stock drop in decades, falling over 20%. While commercial sales held steady, retail sales plunged as cautious consumers deferred maintenance purchases. CEO William Stengel explained that buyers were postponing service-related expenses in response to economic uncertainties.

Similarly, Valvoline recently issued a cautious outlook, causing its shares to slide nearly 9%. Despite its reputation for affordable, quick oil changes, the company faced competitive pressure from tire service centers offering discounted oil changes to attract traffic. CEO Lori Flees acknowledged in an email that this strategy was a direct response to consumers cutting back or trading down on other services.

Skimping on Maintenance

Even under normal circumstances, many drivers neglect recommended maintenance for non-financial reasons. Carfax data indicates that 30% of U.S. vehicles are overdue for tire rotation, and 19% are behind on oil changes.

Yet, with used car prices soaring—up 36% over the past five years, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index—maintaining a vehicle has rarely offered such a strong return on investment. For many Americans, their car is both a critical livelihood tool and one of their most valuable possessions. Data from Placer.ai shows that shoppers at the top four U.S. auto-parts retailers have a median household income roughly 7% below the national average, highlighting the economic pinch felt by lower-income households.

Cutting corners on maintenance, however, may backfire. Choosing a cheaper, no-name tire might save money upfront but could result in higher costs down the road. For instance, one national discount tire chain offers an unbranded "Entry" tire for $149.99, with a warranty of just 40,000 miles. By comparison, a Goodyear tire for the same Ford Explorer costs $254 but comes with a 60,000-mile warranty and additional safety benefits.

Long-Term Impacts and Emerging Trends

While some consumers may regret skimping on quality, this doesn’t guarantee a rebound for premium brands like Goodyear, which reported an 8.3% year-over-year decline in units sold last quarter in the Americas. Iconic brands have lost significant market share to cheaper imports in other industries, and auto parts may follow suit. Still, unlike tires, car maintenance can’t be outsourced overseas.

The growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs)—which require fewer moving parts and no oil changes—could further disrupt the auto parts and repair market, but the trend is likely too recent to explain the current downturn. Instead, the lingering effects of the pandemic and work-from-home shifts may be playing a larger role. In 2020, miles driven plummeted and only recently returned to pre-pandemic levels, reducing wear and tear on vehicles and, consequently, the demand for maintenance services.