China imported no soybeans from the US in September, the first time since November 2018

China imported no soybeans from the United States in September, marking the first month since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero, as buyers turned to South American suppliers amid the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

Data released Monday by China’s General Administration of Customs showed that imports from the U.S. dropped to zero, compared with 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier. Analysts said the decline reflected both the high tariffs China has imposed on U.S. goods and the fact that previously harvested American supplies—known as old-crop beans—had already been sold.

“This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market,” said Wan Chengzhi, analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.

Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean shipments surged 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of China’s total imports, while imports from Argentina jumped 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, or 9% of the total, according to customs data. China’s total soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons in September, the second-highest monthly level on record.

China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans from this autumn’s harvest, and the window for U.S. exports is closing as Chinese buyers secure supplies through November primarily from Brazil and Argentina, boosted by Argentina’s temporary export tax holiday.

Without a breakthrough in trade talks, U.S. farmers could face billions of dollars in potential losses, as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Beijing, however, could also encounter a supply shortfall early next year before Brazil’s new crop reaches the market.

“A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there’s no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting in Beijing.

Negotiations between Beijing and Washington appear to be regaining traction after weeks of new tariff threats and export restrictions. U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday that he believed a soybean agreement would be reached.

From January through September, China imported 63.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, up 2.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8%. Despite avoiding the current U.S. harvest, earlier purchases lifted China’s year-to-date U.S. soybean imports to 16.8 million tons, an increase of 15.5% compared with the same period last year.