Donald Trump and his team are reportedly debating “how much” to invade Mexico once he takes office

In Donald Trump’s incoming administration, a contentious debate has emerged over how aggressively to act on his campaign promise to confront Mexico in the fight against drug cartels—ranging from bombing targets to a potential military incursion.

"How far should we go in taking action against Mexico?" a senior member of Trump’s transition team remarked. "That’s the central question."

This idea, which would have been dismissed as unthinkable by mainstream Republicans in the past—even during Trump’s first term—has gained traction among prominent GOP figures. Over the past four years, many within Republican power structures have come to embrace the notion of using military force in Mexico, an idea Trump has proposed repeatedly.

Trump’s Cabinet selections, including nominees for secretary of defense and secretary of state, have publicly expressed openness to deploying U.S. forces in Mexico. His choice for national security adviser, as well as his pick for “border czar” to oversee immigration policies, have also shown support for military action. Additionally, prominent Trump allies in Congress and conservative media have backed these aggressive measures.

Although Trump often brands himself as the candidate who opposes “endless wars,” he is now signaling a willingness to initiate a conflict just across the southern border. However, as one Trump adviser put it, “It’s not clear yet how far he’ll take this idea.” The adviser added, “If the situation doesn’t improve, he still sees military action as a necessary step to confront the cartels.”

Another individual close to Trump described a potential plan for what they called a “soft invasion” of Mexico. This strategy would involve covert operations by U.S. special forces to target and eliminate cartel leaders, rather than deploying large-scale military forces. Trump has reportedly expressed interest in such a plan during private discussions this year.

According to six Republican sources who have spoken to Trump about these ideas, proposals being considered include drone strikes or airstrikes on cartel operations, deploying military trainers and advisers to Mexico, conducting cyberattacks on cartel networks, and carrying out targeted raids or abductions of high-profile cartel figures. These sources indicate that Trump has sought detailed military options for “attacking Mexico” since at least last year.

In conversations during the presidential transition period, Trump has reportedly told confidants and lawmakers that he intends to issue an ultimatum to the Mexican government: significantly curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States within a few months, or face U.S. military intervention.

Senator Marco Rubio, whom Trump has nominated for secretary of state, has endorsed the concept of deploying U.S. troops to combat drug cartels in Mexico, provided there is cooperation from the Mexican government and the operations are conducted jointly with Mexican armed forces and police.

These developments suggest that a bold, controversial approach to U.S.-Mexico relations could become a defining aspect of Trump’s administration.