During Trump’s term, gas prices averaged $2.57, compared with $3.60 so far under Biden

Gas prices were lower during Trump’s presidency for reasons unrelated to his policies and those factors are no longer in play. Anyone expecting Trump to take significant action to lower energy prices if he returns to the White House is likely to be sorely disappointed.

To set the record straight: oil and gasoline prices were relatively low from 2014 through early 2021, including during Trump’s presidency. When Trump assumed office in January 2017, the average gas price was $2.47 per gallon. Over his four-year term, the average price was only slightly higher at $2.57. Excluding the impact of the COVID pandemic during Trump’s final months—which caused a drastic drop in oil and gas prices—the average price was $2.67.

When Biden took office in January 2021, gas prices averaged $2.42 per gallon. Prices surged along with oil, reaching a peak of $5 per gallon in June 2022. So far under Biden, the average gas price has been $3.61 per gallon, which is 40% higher than the average during Trump’s term and 35% higher if the COVID period is excluded.

Even when adjusted for inflation, gas prices have been notably higher under Biden. The average gas price during Trump’s presidency, adjusted to 2024 dollars, was $3.18, while under Biden, it has been $3.86—21% higher when inflation is considered.

It might be tempting to blame Biden for the higher gas prices of the past two years, given his support for green energy and his criticism of the fossil fuel industry, while Trump advocates for increased oil and gas production with his “drill, baby, drill” approach.

However, market forces beyond any U.S. president’s control largely explain the recent trends in oil and gas prices. These same forces also undermine the notion that any president could implement policies to significantly lower gasoline and energy costs for Americans.

Trump’s presidency coincided with the rise of hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which greatly increased U.S. oil production, a trend that began under the Obama administration around 2012. As shown in the accompanying chart, U.S. oil production reached new highs during Obama’s presidency in 2015, continued to rise under Trump, and then fell sharply due to the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Surprisingly, U.S. oil production hit another record high under Biden, despite his cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and other measures to limit domestic oil and gas development. Biden also enacted substantial green energy incentives aimed at reducing fossil fuel use.

Nevertheless, the U.S. president does not control oil or natural gas production like leaders of major autocratic oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The U.S. government does not impose production quotas; rather, private companies make drilling decisions based on their financial interests.

In the early days of fracking, many energy companies and their investors prioritized growth and market share over profitability, similar to many emerging industries. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations increased their production to protect their global market share against American competition.

This oversupply kept prices low, leading to financial losses for many U.S. energy firms. According to Raoul LeBlanc, vice president of energy at S&P Global, "U.S. energy investors subsidized consumers around the world.” He added, “U.S. consumers got used to low prices they think of as normal. But for these firms to be profitable, prices have to be higher.”