Generative A.I. will upend the workforce, McKinsey says, forcing 12 million job switches and automating away 30% of hours worked in the U.S. economy by 2030

Mass unemployment and visions of a future where everyone can pursue their passions instead of traditional careers are often discussed in relation to the impact of generative A.I. While the specifics of how A.I. will reshape the workforce remain open to debate, experts and workers agree that significant change is inevitable.

A new report from consulting firm McKinsey attempts to quantify these expected shifts by analyzing how job distributions might evolve over time. The report presents a viewpoint that has been rare in current discussions: A.I. is unlikely to eliminate jobs in the long run, though short-term job losses cannot be entirely ruled out. The report suggests that while the sectors most affected by A.I. may still see job growth through 2030, the pace will be slower than previously projected.

Instead of outright job loss, A.I. is expected to alter job functions or create opportunities for workers in lower-paying roles to transition into higher-paying positions, given proper training. McKinsey estimates that 12 million people will switch careers by 2030, a 25% increase from its previous forecast two years ago. Career shifts will occur due to various factors, including job displacement, movement towards higher-paying fields, or increased demand for existing skills.

For instance, the healthcare sector, which had about 1.9 million job openings as of April, is projected to add approximately 5.5 million new jobs by 2030. There will also be a 23% rise in demand for STEM jobs as non-tech industries integrate A.I. into their operations. Conversely, jobs in office support and customer service are expected to decline by 18% and 13%, respectively, due to A.I.'s efficiency in handling administrative tasks. The food service sector will see a smaller decline of about 2% in demand. The reduction in office support jobs will disproportionately impact women, while the decrease in customer service and food service roles poses significant risks to Black and Hispanic workers.

The primary challenge is not just addressing these declines but ensuring that workers are adequately trained for new roles. McKinsey recommends starting STEM training as early as high school and advises companies to widen their applicant pools to include unemployed individuals and those without higher education.

For those who stay in their current roles, the nature of their work will change significantly, with 30% of their work hours expected to be automated by generative A.I. The report emphasizes that automation adoption does not equate to job elimination. Many jobs with automatable tasks will persist, but the daily responsibilities and methods will evolve.