Global 65+ Population Now Outnumbers Kids Under 5 for First Time

The world just crossed a demographic line it has never crossed before. People 65 and older now outnumber children ages 5 and younger worldwide for the first time in recorded history, according to a new report by the U.S. Census. For markets, this is not a one-quarter story, it is a multi-decade tailwind for healthcare and headwind for anything tied to young-family formation.

The tipping point arrived early

The milestone was reached between 2020 and 2025, years earlier than many demographers anticipated, as falling birth rates and longer life expectancies made demographic aging no longer a trend affecting a handful of wealthier countries.

The global population aged 65 and over stood at 852 million last year, or 10.5% of the world’s 8.132 billion people, according to the “An Aging World: 2025” report released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The share of children under 5, by contrast, fell below 10%.

Fertility has collapsed faster than models predicted

The share of the world’s population living in countries with fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 children per couple jumped 26 percentage points in a decade, to 71% in 2023 from 45% in 2013. That pace far exceeds earlier projections by demographers.

The world’s two most populous countries, China and India, now have fertility rates below replacement level, as do Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam. That is not a rich-country problem anymore, it is a global one.

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Where the shift hits hardest

Asia’s 65+ population is projected to surge from 487 million to 1.24 billion from 2025 to 2060, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global increase. South Korea’s share of population aged 65 and over was 20.3% last year, ranking 22nd in the world, but is projected to more than double to 41% by 2060, overtaking current leader Japan to make South Korea the world’s oldest country.

The U.S. ranked as the 48th-oldest country out of 227 in 2025, with 18.9% of its population age 65 or older. By 2060, the U.S. share of older adults is projected to climb to 23.4%, but its global aging rank is predicted to fall to 110th because other countries are aging much faster.

Why traders should care

The number of people 65+ is projected to jump from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion in 2060, accounting for more than half of all net population growth. That means fewer workers supporting more retirees, straining pensions and health systems.

Translation for markets: structurally higher demand for healthcare, pharma, senior housing, and retirement services, and structural pressure on consumer categories that depend on young families, schools, and new household formation. Sovereign debt loads and pension math get harder from here.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for aging-demographic beneficiaries and the names most exposed to shrinking youth cohorts.

• LLY: watch for continued interest in chronic-disease and obesity franchises as the treatable population expands with age.
• UNH: watch for Medicare Advantage exposure to scale with the 65+ cohort in the U.S.
• WELL: watch for senior housing REIT flows tied to the demographic wave.
• ISRG: watch for procedure-volume tailwinds as the older population grows.
• MAT: watch for pressure on toy and baby-goods names as the under-5 cohort shrinks globally.

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