Grocery prices set to rise as soil becomes "unproductive"

Experts are raising alarms about the potential for rising grocery prices as agricultural soil becomes increasingly degraded and unproductive.

A combination of overfarming, climate change, and unsustainable practices has rendered vast areas of farmland less fertile, threatening food supply chains and driving up costs worldwide. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 33% of the Earth's soils are already degraded, with projections indicating that over 90% could be degraded by 2050 if current trends continue.

The Importance of Soil

"Soil erosion occurs naturally under all climatic conditions and on all continents, but unsustainable human activities significantly accelerate it," the FAO explains. Intensive farming, deforestation, overgrazing, and improper land use can increase erosion rates by up to 1,000 times compared to natural levels.

"Soil is a finite resource," the FAO states, emphasizing that its loss and degradation are irreversible within a human lifetime.

A map previously published by Newsweek suggests that 95% of America’s soil could be degraded in less than 30 years, leaving only a small fraction unaffected.

How Soil Degradation Impacts Food Prices

Degraded soil diminishes farmland's ability to grow crops, pushing farmers to rely on expensive artificial fertilizers or abandon fields entirely. This drives up production costs, which are ultimately passed on to consumers.

Staple items like bread, vegetables, and meat are particularly affected. Soil degradation directly impacts the yield of crops, while the rising cost of feed grains drives up the price of livestock products.

Contributing Factors

Several key drivers are behind declining soil productivity:

• Overfarming: Strips the soil of essential nutrients and increases erosion.
• Climate Change: Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events exacerbate soil erosion and salinization.
• Deforestation: Reduces organic matter in the soil and disrupts ecosystems that support fertility.

Expert Opinions

Anand Ethirajalu, a former regenerative farmer and project director with the Save Soil Movement, connects declining soil health with rising food prices. “Between 2016 and 2024, the Consumer Price Index for food has increased annually,” he noted, citing a significant spike in 2022 when food-at-home prices rose by 11.4%—the highest increase since 1979.

Ethirajalu emphasized the economic consequences: “The U.S. loses billions of metric tons of topsoil annually, costing the nation $67 billion each year. Depleted soils reduce crop yields, forcing farmers to use costly fertilizers and irrigation, driving up food production costs and consumer prices.”

He advocates for immediate action, such as adopting regenerative agriculture and integrating trees, crops, and animals to protect and restore soil health. “Healthy soil is the foundation of food security. Protecting it is not just an environmental priority—it’s an economic and social imperative.”

FAO Perspective

In a statement to Newsweek, an FAO representative highlighted the agency's focus on global soil health and food price tracking. They acknowledged the risks posed by soil degradation but suggested that other factors, such as post-COVID supply chain recovery and loose monetary policy, have also contributed to food price increases.

While no clear evidence currently links soil degradation to reduced U.S. crop yields, the representative warned of potential future risks, including fertilizer overuse and depleted aquifers. They noted ongoing U.S. State Department efforts to promote FAO's "soil maps" in hunger-affected regions like Central America and Ethiopia, underscoring the global importance of addressing soil health.