More Than 14% of U.S. Home Purchase Agreements Were Canceled in September, the Highest Rate for Any September on Record
Deals are falling apart
More than 14% of U.S. home purchase agreements were canceled in September, the highest rate for any September on record, per Redfin.
Nationwide, 14.5% of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were later canceled. Other than March and April 2020, that is the highest share Redfin has ever recorded, and it reflects a buyer's market in which house hunters increasingly exercise the option to walk away.
The worst of it is concentrated in the Sun Belt. Jacksonville led major metros at 19.9%, followed by Tampa at 18.8%, Las Vegas at 18.6%, San Antonio at 18.5% and Phoenix at 18.4%. San Francisco, by contrast, saw just 2.8%.
Rates above 7% did the damage
The trigger is financing. Mortgage rates climbed above 7% in late September, with the 30-year fixed averaging roughly 7.3% to 7.4%, and pending home sales fell 4% to their lowest level since spring 2014. Pending sales declined in all 50 of the largest U.S. metros, led by Seattle at -24.4% and a string of California markets.
Sellers are losing leverage just as fast. Total active inventory rose to its highest level since March 2020, 60.5% of homes sold below their original list price, and nearly one in five sellers, 19.8%, cut their asking price in September. The median sale price still rose, but only 1.3% year over year to $393,895, the smallest annual gain since February.
"For the last decade, there was almost a certainty that if you listed a home, it would sell, and it would usually sell quickly, with multiple offers," said Brian Connelly, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston. "Now, the calculus has changed."
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Options market and stocks to watch
Housing is the most rate-sensitive transmission channel in the economy, and a record cancellation rate is a direct read on what 7%-plus mortgages do to demand. The homebuilders sit at the center of it: DHI, LEN, PHM and the builder ETF XHB will trade every wiggle in rates and every housing print from here.
Redfin itself, RDFN, and rival Z carry direct transaction-volume exposure, while mortgage-adjacent names like RKT live and die on origination volume. Rate expectations are the real driver, so watch TLT alongside the builders, and follow housing data on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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