Unusual Whales

Influenza is overtaking Covid-19 as the deadlier virus in the US this winter

Unusual Whales -

Influenza Surpasses Covid-19 as Leading Cause of Respiratory Deaths in the U.S.

For the first time in five years, influenza has overtaken Covid-19 as the deadlier virus in the U.S. this winter, marking a significant shift in seasonal illness trends.

Since Covid-19 emerged in early 2020, it has caused nearly 42 times more deaths than the flu in the U.S. However, preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest that 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for influenza, with the virus now outpacing Covid-19 in mortality rates.

Flu Deaths Outpacing Covid for Two Consecutive Months

While growing concerns about bird flu outbreaks have dominated headlines, seasonal influenza has quietly reached its highest levels in over 15 years. According to Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, flu-related deaths have surpassed Covid-19 fatalities for the past two months.

Since October 2024, the CDC estimates that the flu has:

  • Infected at least 29 million people
  • Led to 370,000 hospitalizations
  • Caused 16,000 deaths

Meanwhile, Covid-19 mortality has been on the decline, largely due to widespread immunity from vaccinations and prior infections. The virus has also evolved to cause less severe complications than in earlier pandemic years.

Factors Driving This Severe Flu Season

Chin-Hong noted that flu seasons vary in intensity, and this one is proving to be particularly severe. He attributes the surge in cases to several factors, including:

  • Lower vaccination rates
  • Delayed treatment, especially among groups not traditionally considered high risk
  • Dominance of severe flu strains, particularly H1N1 and H3N2

The H3N2 strain is notorious for causing more severe illness, and children have been disproportionately affected this season.

Declining Flu Vaccination Rates & Concerns About Efficacy

The flu vaccination rate has dropped significantly, particularly among children. According to the CDC:

  • In January 2020, 58% of children (ages 6 months to 17 years) were vaccinated
  • By January 2025, that number had fallen to just 45%

South America’s recent flu season also suggests that the current flu shots may have lower efficacy than in previous years, raising further concerns about protection.

Delayed Treatment & Barriers to Antivirals

The biggest concern remains delayed diagnosis and treatment, particularly for those at risk of severe complications like pneumonia.

“High hospitalization and death rates suggest that at-risk individuals are not being diagnosed early enough for antivirals like oseltamivir to be effective,” Chin-Hong said.

Barriers to prescribing oseltamivir (Tamiflu), along with the need for better early detection, remain significant challenges in combating severe flu cases.

Flu is Not Just a Threat to Older Adults

Chin-Hong emphasized the need to shift public perception about who is at risk:

“We need to change the narrative that respiratory viruses only cause serious illness in older adults, as we saw with Covid. Flu targets the very young as well.”

With flu now surpassing Covid-19 as the deadlier respiratory illness, public health efforts will need to adapt to address this evolving threat.