JD Vance: "Vote for the People Who Have Solutions to Lower the Cost of Gas"
The midterm argument, in one sentence
JD Vance: "Vote for the people who have solutions to lower the cost of gas, don't vote for the people who made the problem to begin with." The vice president made the line a centerpiece of his midterm pitch on The Sean Spicer Show, in a clip posted October 16, tying the vote directly to what Americans pay at the pump.
In the same interview, Vance said inflation is lower and rent more affordable than before Trump was elected, while acknowledging there is more work to do: "Don't elect the people who caused these problems, elect the Republicans who are working on these problems and solving them every day." Critics online were quick to flip the framing, arguing the line reads as an argument against the party currently in power, and several suggested it would end up in Democratic campaign ads.
A tougher room in Michigan
Days later, Vance faced the argument in person at a CBS News town hall in Michigan moderated by Tony Dokoupil. One voter, Detroit barber Keshon Wheatley, told Vance he had backed Trump in 2020 and 2024 largely on low first-term gas prices, but planned to vote for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Senate race because prices are far higher now.
Vance argued that about 20 percent of American refining capacity went offline under President Biden and is only slowly returning, leaving the US more exposed to the Middle East energy shock, and pointed to Iran shooting at commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Pressed on when relief arrives, he said: "When this conflict is over, we are going to see gas prices come down." Dokoupil noted Vance had called the price spike a "temporary blip" in Michigan back in March, and asked how long temporary lasts.
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Options market and stocks to watch
Gasoline prices are the rare economic variable voters can quote from memory, which makes them an election input and an energy trade at the same time. The integrated majors XOM and CVX track crude, while refiners like MPC and VLO are the names that move on pump prices and crack spreads, all of them bundled in XLE.
What decides the trade is the Strait of Hormuz: any durable reopening that holds would take the war premium out of crude quickly, and any renewed tanker attacks put it back. Watch weekly inventory data and retail gasoline prices into the vote, and follow energy coverage on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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