November 2025 Jobs Report – Unemployment Climbs to 4.6%, Highest Since 2021

A muted rebound after the government shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finally published its November 2025 Employment Situation report today (December 16, 2025) after the agency was forced to cancel October’s release during a 43‑day federal government shutdown. The report is unsettling on two fronts: it reveals a weakening job market and shows how political pressure and data disruptions make it difficult to trust official statistics.

Headline numbers – modest job gains and a rising unemployment rate

Wages and hours: Average hourly earnings for all private non‑farm workers ticked up $0.05 (0.1%) to $36.86, leaving year‑over‑year wage growth at 3.5 %. Production and nonsupervisory workers saw pay rise $0.11 (0.3%) to $31.68. The average work‑week held at 34.3 hours.

Labor force participation: The participation rate (62.5 %) and employment‑to‑population ratio (59.6%) were little changed, signalling stagnation.

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. About 7.8 million people were unemployed in November, and long‑term unemployment (27 weeks or more) remained high at 1.9 million, accounting for 24.3% of all unemployed.

Net job gains: Total non‑farm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after being revised to a 105,000 loss in October (employees on leave due to the shutdown and deferred‑resignation program left payrolls). August’s change was revised down by 22,000, and September’s gain was revised down by 11,000.

Watch National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett's reaction to the November jobs report:

Where Jobs Were Added — and Lost

• Health care:
  +46,000 jobs in November, roughly in line with the 12-month average.
  Gains were concentrated in:
  • Ambulatory health care services (+24,000)
  • Hospitals (+11,000)
  • Nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000)
• Construction:
  +28,000 jobs, led by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+19,000).
  Construction employment is now broadly flat over the past year, suggesting stabilization rather than expansion.
• Social assistance:
  +18,000 jobs, primarily in individual and family services (+13,000).
  This continues a steady upward trend despite broader labor market cooling.
• Transportation and warehousing:
  −18,000 jobs in November.
  The sector has now shed roughly 78,000 jobs since peaking earlier this year, signaling weakening goods demand.
• Federal government:
  −6,000 jobs in November, following a massive −162,000 decline in October tied to the shutdown.
  Federal employment is down roughly 271,000 from its January peak.
• Other major sectors:
  Little to no meaningful change across manufacturing, retail, wholesale trade, financial services, professional services, leisure, and hospitality — a sign of broad-based hiring hesitation.

Wages and Hours Worked

• Average hourly earnings:
  +0.1% month-over-month to $36.86
  +3.5% year-over-year, continuing a clear deceleration trend
• Production and nonsupervisory wages:
  +0.3% month-over-month to $31.76
• Average workweek:
  Held steady at 34.3 hours
  Manufacturing hours were unchanged at 40.0

Household dynamics

Marginally attached workers: About 5.5 million people not in the labor force still want a job. Within this group, 1.8 million were classified as marginally attached, including 651,000 discouraged workers.

Part‑time for economic reasons: People working part‑time because they couldn’t find full‑time jobs jumped 909,000 to 4.3 million—another sign of slack.

Short‑term joblessness surged: The number of people unemployed less than 5 weeks rose to 2.5 million, up 316,000 from September. This suggests fresh layoffs rather than lingering unemployment.

Data quality caveats – shutdown distortions and political turmoil

The November report is subject to unusually large uncertainties:

• Politicization of the BLS: President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on 1 August 2025, accusing her of “rigging” the weak July jobs report. McEntarfer had been confirmed with a bipartisan vote and served under an autonomous mandate. Economists warned that politicizing the bureau undermines confidence in economic data.
• Fed skepticism: Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that the labor market appears weaker than the payroll figures suggest. He warned that there might be an overcount of around 60,000 jobs per month, meaning that 40,000 reported jobs could actually be a 20,000 loss. Powell said policymakers would treat the data “with a skeptical eye” until the shutdown’s effects are worked throughtheguardian.com.

Delayed revisions: Because October data were never collected, there are no revisions to October payrolls. Analysts must therefore rely on the November release and the downward revisions to August and September.

Cancelled October survey: The BLS could not survey households during October’s 43‑day shutdown, so it constructed November weights without October data and extended the survey window. Officials warned that standard errors are higher and that the unemployment rate required a 0.26 percentage point change to be statistically significant.

Market & trading implications – reading the job tape through an Unusual Whales lens

1. Weak data strengthen the case for more rate cuts, but uncertainty rules

The combined effect of slowing payroll growth, rising unemployment, and soft wage gains increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy. However, because the November data may overstate employment, the Fed signalled it would not overreact. Traders should therefore watch the January 2026 FOMC meeting for signals on future rate cuts. Options on interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors—financials, homebuilders, and utilities—could be sensitive to shifting expectations.

2. Sector rotation may accelerate

• Defensive sectors outperform? The job gains in health care and social assistance suggest resilience in those industries. Options flow may show increased call buying in health‑care providers or insurance stocks as investors rotate toward defensive names.

Government‑dependent contractors: The continued slide in federal employment and political fights over funding create risk for federal contractors. Traders might look for unusual options activity in defence and infrastructure names.

Cyclicals under pressure: Transportation and warehousing posted further job losses. Couriers and e‑commerce delivery firms could see bearish sentiment, leading to elevated put volumes. Construction added jobs, but uncertainty about infrastructure spending and rising borrowing costs may temper the optimism.

3. Watch volatility and hedging activity

The November report’s uncertainty and the ongoing debate over its reliability create a fragile environment for risk assets. Expect to see:

• Straddles/strangles on indexes: Because the data could be revised sharply, traders may favour neutral strategies that profit from volatility. Monitoring 0DTE (zero‑day‑to‑expiry) option flows on major indexes can provide clues about intraday sentiment shifts.
• Put hedges: Rising unemployment and weak hiring trends historically precede equity pullbacks. In periods of data uncertainty, hedging demand often appears earlier than typical macro catalysts. Unusual Whales’ Flow Feed can help identify spikes in put volume across sectors.

4. Prepare for the December report (due 9 January 2026)

Because October data are missing and November figures are uncertain, the December employment report will be critical. A further slowdown or sharp negative revision could confirm that the labour market is deteriorating faster than investors expect. Traders should be ready to adjust positioning quickly around that release and use Unusual Whales tools to track real‑time options flow.

Conclusion – treat the jobs report with caution but respect its warning signs

The November 2025 jobs report paints a picture of a labour market losing momentum: payroll growth is barely positive, unemployment is at a four‑year high, and downward revisions to prior months. Yet the data are clouded by shutdown‑induced data gaps, political interference at the BLS, and Fed skepticism. For Unusual Whales readers, this means two things:

1. Do not take the headline numbers at face value. The true state of the job market may be weaker than reported or could be revised significantly when better data arrive.
2. Opportunities exist in uncertainty. Weak labour data and political drama heighten volatility and create dislocations. By tracking unusual options activity and sector‑specific flows, traders can position for moves that less‑informed market participants might miss.

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