JPMorgan’s Dimon: Odds of a recession are 50%

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon isn't dismissing the possibility of a U.S. recession, saying on Thursday, “I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point.”

In an interview with Bloomberg, Dimon pointed to the nation’s substantial fiscal deficit, along with his anticipation of higher long-term interest rates and inflation, as reasons for concern.

"If a recession does occur, I can’t say how severe it would be or how long it might last. Hopefully, we steer clear of it. But again, I wouldn't rule it out," he said, emphasizing that he defers to his team of economists for specific forecasts.

Just two days earlier, JPMorgan economists had revised their outlook, dialing back their recession prediction that came shortly after the Trump administration launched a broad wave of tariffs last month.

JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, noted in a client update, “We still see elevated risks of a recession, but now peg the odds at under 50%.”

In response to economic pressures, former President Trump postponed many of his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs and agreed to a 90-day pause on heightened duties on Chinese imports during a temporary trade agreement.

(Photo Caption: President Donald Trump greets JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at a 2017 White House meeting with leading U.S. business executives. — Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)

Back in early April, Dimon had told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria” that a recession seemed like “a likely outcome.” His comments came just before Trump publicly announced the temporary suspension of the tariffs. Later that same day, the former president acknowledged having heard Dimon’s remarks.