JPMorgan's Kolanovic says the resurgence in meme-stocks like GameStop, $GME, is a bad sign for stock market
JPMorgan's Kolanovic says the resurgence in meme-stocks like GameStop, $GME, is a bad sign for stock market.
In a note on Monday, Kolanovic reiterated his bearish view on stocks even as the S&P 500 trades within 1% of its record high. The strategist has one of the lowest S&P 500 price targets on Wall Street at 4,200, representing a downside of 20% from current levels.
"It is possible, but historically and statistically unlikely, that this time is different and that high valuations of risk assets are justified," Kolanovic said.
Kolanovic takes issue with the fact that stock market valuations have remained so elevated, with the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio at 21x compared to its 30-year average of 17x, even as interest rates have hovered around multi-year highs for nearly two years.
That, combined with the recent return of highly speculative retail trading activity in cryptocurrencies and meme stocks, as well as worrying economic data points, gives Kolanovic confidence in what has been a 20-month bearish call on the stock market.
"What is perhaps different this time is that investors have little concern about asset valuations despite the high level of interest rates, and that is evidenced from the recent increase in meme stock and crypto trading activity, valuations of tech stocks, and diverging performance of stocks vs. bonds," Kolanovic explained.
On the economic front, Kolanovic said recent data suggests an economic slowdown or even a recession might not be far away.
"These signals include last week's Chicago PMI, past year increase of unemployment, sharp drop in home sales, almost 2 years of yield curve inversion, uptick in consumer delinquencies, and several others," Kolanovic said.