Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, per JPMorgan
Eight months into the US-Israel-Iran war, the oil market's worst fears are fading.
Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, according to a September 29 JPMorgan note from Natasha Kaneva. A 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels a day is flowing — essentially back to normal.
The recovery, in numbers
Total crude plus refined products averaged 20.5 million barrels a day over the past five days, or 89% of 2025 levels. Refined products lag at 3 million barrels a day, just 58% of prewar.
The key repair: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted around September 22 after a drone attack earlier in the month, and is already moving at least 3.5 million barrels a day — about half its capacity. Yanbu loadings have resumed. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running near 13 million barrels a day, close to late-June highs.
Goldman Sachs pegs Gulf exports including "dark flows" at 23.3 million barrels a day, in line with the 2025 average.
Prices stay elevated anyway
Brent is holding near $96 and WTI around $90. Trump has rejected easing Iran sanctions, and the US is releasing the final 40-million-barrel tranche of its 172-million-barrel emergency SPR release.
Supply is recovering. Risk premium is not.
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What this means for the options market
Recovering supply with stubbornly high prices is the classic energy-bull setup: volumes returning plus a war premium equals cash flow for producers. But any headline from the Strait of Hormuz or the SPR program can flip crude fast.
Watch energy flow: USO, XLE, XOM, and CVX. JPMorgan's own note moves oil desks — and JPM flow often telegraphs where the macro crowd is leaning.
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