Morgan Stanley: Trump's Posts Don't Move Markets Like They Used To

Morgan Stanley says the market has largely tuned out President Trump's social media posts, with headline risk from Truth Social now a fading factor for equities. The bank is telling clients to focus on tangible policy outcomes heading into the November midterms, not individual posts.

What Morgan Stanley is telling clients

Equity strategist Ariana Salvatore wrote that “For equities, headline risks from social media posts are becoming less important outside of possible intraday trading.” The framing came in response to client questions about whether a heavier posting cadence into the elections could swing asset prices.

Numbed by months of posts about everything from tariffs to the Fed to the Iran war, the market's risk of seeing major swings after Trump posts has declined markedly, according to the firm.

When the desensitization started

The turning point traces back to the post-April 2025 period, when the so-called “Liberation Day sell-off” rattled markets badly enough to serve as a kind of collective learning experience for investors. Since then, posts on trade, the Fed, and geopolitics have progressively lost the ability to trigger sustained moves.

Morgan Stanley Research also finds that markets have become less sensitive to political headlines over time. An analysis of Trump's social media posts on tariffs and the U.S.-Iran conflict suggests equity investors have increasingly looked through headline risk. Bond markets remain more responsive to geopolitical developments, particularly when they have direct implications for inflation and economic growth. Recent comments related to Iran, for example, have influenced expectations for oil prices and inflation.

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JPMorgan sees the same thing in bonds

Three months into the Iran war, bond market traders are tuning out Trump's posts on Truth Social, analysts say. Researchers from JPMorgan show that for the most part, his social media posts are noise, with very little ability to move the market.

Looking at the impact of Truth Social posts since the start of the Iran war, JPMorgan analysts found more recent pronouncements had a weaker impact on U.S. government bond yields, suggesting the rates market reaction to Trump's posts on the conflict has decayed over time despite the conflict still being ongoing.

The exceptions still matter

Morgan Stanley's analysis noted that individual stock endorsements can still create isolated price movements. Posts mentioning specific companies like Dell, Micron, and Palantir have shown the ability to move those particular tickers, while broader indices have remained stable through these episodes.

Trump's April 9 tariff-pause posts preceded a sharp single-day stock rally, and his American Eagle post was followed by a reported 20% rise in that stock. The takeaway: single-name risk from a post is alive; index-level risk is not what it was.

Focus on policy, not posts

“We are not saying that midterms are not important — but focusing on the tangible policy outcomes from Congress, even if limited, is a more reliable indicator of market performance vs. individual social media posts,” Salvatore added.

With the November 2026 midterm elections approaching, both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are essentially telling clients the same thing: focus on concrete policy developments, not individual posts. You can track more market and policy news here.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for continued single-name reactivity when the president names companies directly:

DELL: flagged by Morgan Stanley as a name that has moved on presidential mentions; watch options flow around any renewed commentary on AI hardware or federal spending.

MU: memory names have shown sensitivity to policy posts tied to chips and trade; monitor implied vol into any tariff headlines.

PLTR: another name cited as reactive to presidential posts; watch for gamma-driven intraday swings on any government-contract commentary.

AEO: cited as a case study for post-driven single-stock rallies; watch for follow-through positioning.

SPY: the broader index is where desensitization is most visible; watch for the tape to keep shrugging off macro posts absent an actual policy change.

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