US National Security Officials Are Quietly Advising States on Preparing for Possible Trump Midterm Interference, per WaPo
Election officials are rehearsing for federal agents
A small group of U.S. national security officials has been discreetly advising state and congressional lawmakers on how to prepare for the possibility that the Trump administration will attempt to interfere in the midterms, per WaPo. The group includes about 10 current and former Defense Department officials, some of whom previously focused on countering authoritarianism abroad.
Over the past several months the group has consulted with officials from 10 states, including governors, election officials and members of Congress from both parties. "All of them have said we're concerned but we don't know what to do," one member of the group said of the meetings. Members spoke anonymously, citing fear of retaliation, and stressed that the work was done outside their official roles and based on the administration's public statements and actions, not classified intelligence.
The scenarios they are planning around
Their concerns include the administration deploying troops or immigration agents to polling places, or trying to nullify results with claims of voter fraud. Election officials around the country are rehearsing what to do if a federal agent shows up at a polling place demanding access to ballots or voting machines, and Tammy Patrick of the National Association of Election Officials told the Post that possible federal interference has become the dominant concern among the officials she works with.
Colorado's Jena Griswold put it bluntly: "Our number one risk at this point is the federal government." The White House dismissed the group's concerns. Spokesperson Lauren Bis blamed Democrats for opposing stricter election laws and said the administration "is taking decisive action to protect our elections."
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Options market and stocks to watch
A contested midterm is a volatility event before it is a policy event. Reports of states preparing for federal interference raise the odds of delayed or disputed results in the races that decide control of Congress, and that uncertainty is what index hedging prices: watch put demand in SPY and QQQ into election night, and event-contract volume on congressional control through HOOD.
The practical marker is whether any of the prepared-for scenarios actually occur at a polling place, because a single incident in a swing state would dominate the post-election legal fight. Follow election coverage on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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