OpenAI needs to raise at least $207 billion by 2030 so it can continue to lose money

OpenAI’s Big AI Dream Is Running a $207 B Deficit

According to a fresh report from HSBC, even after accounting for explosive user-growth and revenue forecasts, ChatGPT’s parent company remains far from profitable. Their updated model suggests that by 2030, OpenAI will still be operating in the red — unless it drums up $207 billion in fresh funding.

Two massive cloud deals — a $250 B agreement with Microsoft and a $38 B pact with Amazon — pushed its committed AI compute capacity to 36 gigawatts and locked it into what HSBC estimates will be $792 billion in rental bills by 2030, possibly rising to $1.4 trillion by 2033.

Even under the bullish assumption of 3 billion users worldwide, with 10–20% converting to paid subscriptions, and LLM-powered search plus digital advertising revenue — projected revenue still falls hundreds of billions short of the tab.

Bottom line: OpenAI remains a massive infrastructure liability masquerading as an AI boom — and the financing question looms large.

What This Means for the Market

💡 Pressure on Big-Cap AI Suppliers & Infrastructure Stocks

With OpenAI locked into multiyear cloud-compute commitments, cloud-provider and chipmaker stocks could see volatility depending on funding developments. Key players to watch:

• NVDA — GPUs remain central to AI training.
• AMD — memory and accelerator chips may see demand swings.
• ORCL & MSFT — cloud infrastructure providers potentially exposed if OpenAI renegotiates.

If OpenAI fails to secure capital or revenue growth disappoints, contracts may get renegotiated or cancelled — downside risk for those suppliers. Conversely, a funding round or renewed optimism could trigger a rally in AI-infrastructure plays.

Options Market — What to Watch

Expect increased activity in options chains for NVDA, AMD, ORCL, and MSFT. Traders may start pricing in “raise or fail” scenarios for OpenAI:

• Upside potential: If OpenAI locks down funding or revenue scales faster than expected, call volume on NVIDIA and AMD could spike.
• Downside risk: If funding dries up or deals are restructured, put volume may surge — especially on ORCL and MSFT.

This dynamic could create high implied volatility — a fertile environment for strangle or straddle strategies.

AI Hype vs. Hard Dollars — Can OpenAI Ever Break Even?

Even under HSBC’s “base case” — 3 billion users, 10% subscription conversion, plus ad revenue — OpenAI’s model comes up short by $207 billion. That assumes a world in which 1 in 5 people globally subscribe.

To cover the gap, OpenAI realistically needs to either:

• Pull in far more paying users (unlikely given global income distribution),
• Monetize in other ways (ads, enterprise deals, data licensing), or
• Secure massive capital injections or debt financing — risky given current market conditions.

Which leaves open the possibility of contract renegotiations, capacity scaling back, or — worst case — a partial unwind.

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🔎 Stocks & Tickers to Watch

Keep a close eye on options volume for these names — the market seems to believe something big is coming.

Final Word: The AI gold rush isn’t over — but the tab is coming due. OpenAI's epic compute bets have made it the industry’s headline AI company — but also one of its biggest near-term liabilities. For traders and investors, that means opportunity and risk — especially in chips, cloud, and infrastructure.

Whether you ride the wave or short the hype, keep a close eye on funding signals, options flow, and how OpenAI’s backers respond.