Over 1 in 4 Americans will be Latino by 2060

Over 1 in 4 Americans will be Latino by 2060, per the Census.

The Hispanic population currently constitutes 19.1% of the total U.S. population, and it is anticipated to rise to 26.9% within the next four decades. In contrast, the non-Hispanic white population is predicted to decrease from the current 58.9% to 44.9% by the year 2060.

Looking at the broader perspective, the overall U.S. population is expected to grow from its current 333 million to a peak of almost 370 million by 2080, followed by a decline to 366 million by the year 2100.

These projections, released Thursday, represent an update from the Census Bureau's 2017 figures. The new numbers incorporate data on births, deaths, and international migration, resulting in a slower rate of population growth compared to previous estimates, as stated by Census Bureau demographer Sandra Johnson in a news release.

Over the past five years, the U.S. has witnessed significant shifts in population dynamics, with factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic impacting mortality rates. Some of these changes are expected to be temporary, while others, such as the enduring decline in fertility, are likely to persist into the future.

The Census Bureau provided four sets of projections for the overall population based on different scenarios: the middle series or most likely projections, the high immigration scenario, the low immigration scenario, and the far less probable zero-immigration scenario.

Across all scenarios, declining fertility rates and an aging population are anticipated to result in more deaths than births in the U.S. This is expected to occur in 2038 in the most likely projections, 2036 in the low immigration scenario, and 2042 in the high immigration scenario. In the zero-immigration scenario, this shift is predicted to happen in 2033.

Given the projection of more deaths than births, immigration is anticipated to be the primary driver of population growth. In the high immigration scenario, the U.S. population is forecasted to reach 435 million by the year 2100.