Ray Dalio has said that ‘we’re heading into very, very dark times’
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has delivered a stark warning about the outlook for both the United States and the United Kingdom, saying he is not optimistic about either country’s direction and believes “we’re heading into very, very dark times.” The Bridgewater Associates founder, drawing from his study of 500 years of history, pointed to an 80-year cycle that he says reliably predicts periods of upheaval, both globally and domestically.
Dalio’s model rests on five forces that shape history: money and debt dynamics, internal conflict, external geopolitical conflict, acts of nature, and human innovation—particularly technological progress. He argued that both the U.S. and U.K. are showing clear signals of entering the most dangerous part of that cycle.
“The U.K. has a financial problem, the government has a debt problem,” Dalio said in an interview on the Diary of a CEO podcast. He explained that when debts rise faster than incomes, the economy becomes strained. This, he added, links directly to another force: rising internal divisions. Deep wealth and opportunity gaps have fueled polarization between the left and right, weakening trust in institutions. He also argued that the U.K. lacks the culture of inventiveness and the strong capital markets that have historically benefited the U.S.
Productivity data appear to reinforce his concerns. Productivity in the U.K. has been stagnant for nearly two decades. Diane Coyle, professor of public policy at Cambridge, told NPR’s Planet Money in 2022 that “we’ve had flatlining productivity since the mid-2000s,” with the slowdown worse than that seen in other advanced economies. The London School of Economics earlier this year referred to the issue as a “productivity puzzle,” noting the U.K. suffered the sharpest post-financial crisis contraction in labor productivity among major peers.
Challenges for the U.S.
Dalio’s outlook for America was equally sobering. While he acknowledged its entrepreneurial culture and innovative edge, he pointed to high national debt, severe political polarization, and widening divides in wealth and values that he said threaten the functioning of democracy. Externally, the U.S. faces what he called a “great power conflict” with China, particularly in technology. “The winner of the technology war is going to win all wars,” Dalio said, drawing parallels with past breakthroughs such as nuclear weapons.
That backdrop was underscored as Washington and Beijing—alongside high-profile business leaders including Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell—were negotiating the final terms of U.S. control over TikTok in late September. At issue was control of the algorithm, a detail that highlighted how central technology has become to geopolitical competition.
Advice for individuals
Despite the grave outlook, Dalio emphasized that individuals should focus not on despair but on preparation. The essential question, he said, is “how you as an individual handle it.”
He urged flexibility and mobility, quoting a Chinese proverb: “a smart rabbit has three holes.” In practice, this means being able to move yourself and your capital when conditions deteriorate, rather than being tied down to a single asset or location.
On finances, Dalio advised disciplined earning, spending, saving, and investing. Personally, he recommended aligning life choices with one’s own nature, prioritizing learning from great mentors over chasing early paychecks, and striving for meaningful work and meaningful relationships—factors he believes matter more for happiness than large sums of money.