Raymond James sets Street-high $800 SpaceX price target

Raymond James just planted the most aggressive flag on Wall Street for SpaceX, initiating coverage with a Strong Buy and a Street-high $800 price target on SPCX. The call implies roughly 440% upside from the stock’s July 8 close of $148.30.

The call

Raymond James initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, the highest on Wall Street, calling SpaceX one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century. The analyst behind the note is Brian Gesuale.

The $800 target implies a market capitalization of roughly $10.5 trillion, which would make SpaceX the most valuable company ever if it played out.

The math behind $800

Raymond James projects SpaceX will grow from roughly $38.5 billion in revenue and $17.7 billion in EBITDA today to more than $837 billion in revenue and $696 billion in EBITDA by 2031, with the $800 target based on a 27 times exit multiple discounted cash flow on 2031 EBITDA.

Central to the thesis is Starship, which Raymond James says reduces the cost of transporting mass to orbit by more than 99% while increasing payload capacity by an order of magnitude.

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Where the rest of the Street sits

Morgan Stanley began coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 base case, Goldman Sachs initiated with a Buy and a $205 target, Citigroup started with a Buy and a $200 12-month target, and UBS and Wells Fargo also launched coverage with positive recommendations.

MoffettNathanson is the lone outright skeptic among initiating analysts with a neutral rating and a $131 price target, and CFRA has reportedly issued a sell-equivalent with a $115 Street-low target.

The conflict-of-interest angle

The call came at the end of a mandatory 25-day quiet period for underwriters of the SpaceX IPO, with most analysts putting price targets between $200 and $250 on shares. Raymond James was one of those underwriters.

At least 13 analysts have weighed in, and all 12 from the IPO’s underwriting banks carry the equivalent of a Buy rating, drawing scrutiny given those banks stand to benefit from future SpaceX capital raises that Goldman Sachs has estimated at up to $270 billion through 2030.

Options market and stocks to watch

SPCX: Watch for flow reaction to the Street-high target and any follow-on notes as the stock trades well below the average analyst target. SPCX was around $153 on Thursday after rising about 3.2%, following a stretch where the stock had fallen more than 25% from recent highs despite joining the Nasdaq-100.

SPCH and SPCU: The Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF and the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SPCX ETF amplify daily moves in the underlying and were each indicated higher in pre-market ahead of Thursday’s open.

TSLA: Watch for spillover as Musk-linked names often move in sympathy on major SpaceX headlines. Check other news for more.

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