Record 47.9 Million Americans Have Already Voted in US Midterms, Per AFP
A record 47.9 million Americans have already voted in next week's US midterm elections, with participation surging in key battleground states, per AFP.
The University of Florida's Election Lab had recorded 47,922,669 early votes nationwide by midday Friday.
That figure surpasses the previous midterm record of 45.9 million early votes cast ahead of Election Day in 2022.
The election will determine control of Congress, with Republicans defending a 53-47 Senate majority.
Texas Leads the Surge
In Texas, more than six million people had voted early by Wednesday, according to official figures.
In-person turnout in the state is running around 50 percent ahead of the same stage in 2022.
Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist who oversees the Election Lab, has pointed to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data.
Turnout has been particularly strong in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border.
McDonald has said overall turnout could approach the 2018 midterm rate, which was the highest for a midterm election since 1914.
Democrats Outpacing Republicans in Early Ballots
In states that register voters by party, Election Lab figures showed Democrats making up around 44 percent of early voters.
Republicans accounted for about 31 percent, while unaffiliated and minor-party voters made up roughly 25 percent.
An Associated Press analysis also found early voting significantly outpacing the last midterm, with particularly sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races.
However, experts warn against interpreting the figures as a prediction of the election outcome.
A voter's party registration does not reveal which candidates they supported, and tens of millions more Americans are expected to cast ballots on Tuesday.
Higher early participation also does not necessarily translate into higher overall turnout, since some voters may simply be casting ballots sooner than in previous elections.
What It Means for Markets
Election outcomes can move markets, particularly around tax policy, regulation, energy and defense spending.
Traders are watching the broad indexes into Tuesday's vote, including the SPY, the QQQ and the small-cap focused IWM.
A change in control of one or both chambers of Congress could shift expectations for fiscal policy heading into 2027.
Unusual Whales users can track unusual options activity and market tide shifts around the election in real time.
Want to follow the flow into Election Day and beyond? Sign up for Unusual Whales at https://unusualwhales.com/login?ref=blubber and start finding market opportunities today.