Sales of heavy trucks are falling like the U.S. is headed for a recession

Heavy truck sales decreased 16% YoY in August, reaching 422 thousand SAAR, down from 442 thousand in July and 501 thousand SAAR in August 2024. Year-to-date sales are down 8.4%. Historically, heavy truck sales decline sharply before a recession, and recent sales have been soft.

Heavy truck sales have experienced a significant decline in August 2025, dropping 16% year-over-year (YoY) to 422,000 units, according to the latest data. This decrease follows a 10% YoY drop in July and a 14% YoY decline in August 2024, suggesting a broader trend of softening sales. Year-to-date (YTD) sales are down 8.4%, indicating a continued downward trajectory.

This decline aligns with historical patterns where heavy truck sales typically drop sharply before a recession. The current market volatility, driven by economic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty, is a primary factor contributing to this trend. Regulatory challenges, such as the expiration of federal electric vehicle (EV) incentives on September 30, 2025, have further dampened investment in the sector [2].

The heavy truck segment, which includes Class 8 vehicles, has been particularly hard-hit. According to the Cass Freight Index, freight demand has been contracting for 28 consecutive months, with a 4% year-over-year decline in May 2025. This weakness in freight demand, coupled with high inventory levels and prolonged rate-holding by the Federal Reserve, has led to a decrease in orders and sales.