Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is poised to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession

Seasonal hiring in retail is expected to drop to its lowest point since the 2009 recession, signaling a potentially weaker holiday shopping season, according to a Wednesday report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The firm projects retailers may add fewer than 500,000 jobs in the final quarter of 2025 — the smallest seasonal increase in 16 years and down 8% from last year.

“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm. “While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less.”

The report notes that fewer companies have released seasonal hiring plans compared with this time last year. Target, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi, and 1-800-Flowers have not yet disclosed figures. Last year, Target announced 100,000 seasonal hires, but this year it said it would expand hours for current employees and lean on its 43,000-member On-Demand team, while also adding seasonal workers without specifying how many.

Macy’s, Burlington, Aldi, and 1-800-Flowers have not released details. Some companies, like Amazon and UPS, typically announce later in the season. Spirit Halloween and Bath & Body Works are among the few to share plans so far: Spirit will hire 50,000 workers, the same as last year, while Bath & Body Works will bring on 32,000, slightly below 2024’s 32,700.

The slower pace of retail hiring reflects a broader cooling in the labor market, which recently influenced the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates.