Stock valuations mirror the extremes of 1929 and the market is at risk of a steep crash, investor John Hussman said

Stock valuations mirror the extremes of 1929 and the market is at risk of a steep crash, investor John Hussman has said.


Stock valuations are reaching extreme levels reminiscent of those seen before the crashes of 1929 and 2021, signaling a potential steep decline, according to John Hussman.

The renowned investor, known for predicting the market crashes of 2000 and 2008, issued another warning this week as investors pushed the market to record highs following the Fed's latest policy update, which reiterated the outlook for rate cuts in 2024.

However, this enthusiasm is leaving the market vulnerable, similar to the conditions before the 1929 crash or the market peak in 2021 preceding the subsequent bear market.

Hussman highlighted several valuation measures to support this outlook in a note on Thursday. According to his investment firm's most reliable measure, the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross value-added is currently at its highest level since the 1929 stock market peak, just before the market crash that saw the Dow plummet 89% from its peak.

"Impressively, investors are currently experiencing the double-top of the most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history," Hussman wrote.

Hussman has consistently warned that overly speculative market bubbles often end poorly for traders, with stocks typically reaching a "limit" to speculation before experiencing a sharp decline.

"At present, we see neither favorable valuations nor favorable market internals, while our indicators of overextension suggest the risk of a sudden air-pocket, panic, or crash," he cautioned. "Even with the adjustments we've made in this cycle, current observable conditions warrant a strongly defensive stance."

Hussman's bearish stance contrasts with the growing bullish sentiment among investors amid the stock market's prolonged rally. In October, he warned that the S&P 500 could plunge by 63% once the speculative market bubble bursts, potentially dropping to its lowest level since 2013.

While he has not made an official forecast in his recent warnings, he noted that a crash of that magnitude would not surprise him.