Stocks are up 12% this year, but nearly half of Americans (49%) believe that they’re down

Stocks are up 12% this year, but nearly half of Americans (49%) believe that they’re down, per Harris.

Nearly three in five Americans mistakenly believe that the US is in an economic recession, with the majority blaming the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey revealed ongoing pessimism about the economy as election day approaches.

The poll highlighted several misconceptions about the economy, including:

• 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, despite the fact that the gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the economy, has been growing.
• 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, although the index rose about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
• 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, despite the unemployment rate being under 4%, a near 50-year low.

Many Americans hold Biden responsible for the perceived state of the economy, with 58% of those polled saying it is worsening due to mismanagement by the presidential administration.

The poll also underscored people’s complex feelings about inflation. A large majority, 72%, believe inflation is increasing. In reality, the inflation rate has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% annually.

In April, the inflation rate decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, far from the 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022. This triggered a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.

A recession is generally defined by a decrease in economic activity, typically measured as GDP, over two successive quarters, although in the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has the final say. US GDP has been rising over the last few years, except for a brief contraction in 2022, which the NBER did not classify as a recession.