Texas Economy Hits $2.9 Trillion, Bigger Than Canada and Italy
Texas produced roughly $2.9 trillion of economic output in 2025.
That is per preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates, and Governor Abbott's April 17, 2026 press release called it a record high. In the Texas Comptroller's comparison with national economies, that places Texas 8th in the world at current exchange rates, ahead of both Canada and Italy.
Canada's 2025 nominal GDP was about $2.32 trillion in current U.S. dollars, per World Bank figures. Italy's was about $2.55 trillion. Texas out-produced Canada by more than half a trillion dollars. One nuance the comparison skips: in Canadian dollars, Canada's economy was C$3.25 trillion.
How Texas got there
Texas grew 2.5% in real, inflation-adjusted terms in 2025, faster than the U.S. overall and faster than eight of the top 10 nations. Population reached 31.7 million in July 2025, up from 29.1 million in 2020, adding about 391,000 residents in the latest year, the largest numerical increase of any state. GDP per capita sits around $92,474.
The drivers: energy, with 43% of U.S. crude-oil and 29% of natural-gas production in 2024, plus number one in wind; semiconductor, tech, and manufacturing reshoring including Tesla, Samsung, SpaceX, and a proposed $55 billion Terafab; 57 Fortune 500 headquarters, the most of any state; finance expansion in Dallas, dubbed "Y'all Street"; and no personal state income tax.
The Dallas Fed says Texas real GDP grew 3.5% per year on average from 2000 to 2024 versus 2.2% nationally. Under Abbott, the economy grew from $1.59 trillion in January 2015 to $2.9 trillion at the end of 2025, about 46% in real terms.
Texas exported $448.2 billion in goods in 2025, more than any other state. Mexico took $124.7 billion, about 28%. The largest export category was computers and electronic products, ahead of petroleum.
The comparison has political edge: in late August 2026, Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas wrote on X amid U.S.-Canada tariff escalation, "Your entire nation has a lower annual GDP than Texas."
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Options market and stocks to watch
The Texas economy is a diversified basket: energy, semis, tech, and finance. Its outperformance is a read on domestic reshoring and energy. Watch these names:
XLE: the energy sector ETF is the most direct Texas proxy, with the state's 43% share of U.S. crude production.
SMH: the semiconductor ETF catches the Texas fab buildout, from Samsung to the proposed $55 billion Terafab.
TSLA: Tesla's Texas footprint makes it a single-name read on the state's manufacturing boom.
Watch for unusual flow around state-level economic data and energy headlines. For more macro coverage, see other market news here.
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