The mortgage 'lock-in' effect is here to stay and home prices won't fall for years to come

The mortgage 'lock-in' effect is here to stay and home prices won't fall for years to come, per Capital Economics.


Capital Economics suggests that the frozen state of the US housing market may persist for several years. Following the housing boom during the pandemic, factors such as nearly 7% mortgage rates, limited inventory, and high home prices have led to a "lock-in" effect. This effect means that current homeowners are hesitant to move because doing so would entail accepting a new, higher mortgage rate. Consequently, this situation discourages many potential buyers and sellers from participating in the housing market.

In a recent note, the firm stated that even if mortgage rates were to decrease to 6% as anticipated, the "lock-in" effect would continue to restrain homebuying activity. Therefore, Capital Economics expects only a gradual increase in new resale supply entering the market over the next few years.

Capital Economics forecasts a 5% increase in house prices this year, surpassing the consensus estimate of a 3% rise. The research group predicts that housing market activity will remain subdued due to intense competition for homes and historically low affordability.

The strategists also anticipate that mortgage rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels. Despite potential easing of Federal Reserve interest rates and reduced market uncertainty, mortgage rates could reach 6.5% by the end of 2023 and 6.0% by the end of 2024.

However, Capital Economics does not anticipate significant changes in the affordability of monthly mortgage payments for Americans. Currently, mortgage payments represent 25.7% of income, a figure that could decrease to 23.1% by the end of next year.

Overall, Capital Economics believes that the housing market will remain largely stagnant, with the lack of available homes for sale due to the "lock-in" effect being a major constraint on activity.