The U.S. will enter the 22nd century with a shrinking population unless immigration increases

The U.S. will enter the 22nd century with a shrinking population unless immigration increases, per the Census.

The United States is projected to face a declining population in the 22nd century unless there is an increase in immigration, according to new projections from the U.S. Census Bureau released on Thursday. This demographic shift has significant implications for the country, affecting the economy and societal structures.

Population growth is crucial for economic development and sustaining safety-net programs.
Key Points:

1. The Census Bureau's "most likely" scenario suggests that the U.S. population will start decreasing after reaching a peak of nearly 370 million people in 2080.
2. Despite the expected decline, the population is projected to be 9.2% larger in 2100 than in 2023, rising from around 335 million to 366 million people.
3. The projections are based on assumptions about future birth and death rates and various migration scenarios.
4. In nearly all scenarios, immigration is anticipated to be the primary driver of population growth, as it has been for decades.
5. Under a zero-immigration scenario, the population would decline immediately and reach 226 million by 2100.
6. With high immigration, the population could reach 435 million by the end of the century.
7. The U.S. is expected to experience rapid aging, with people 65 years or older outnumbering those under 18 by 2029.
8. By 2100, an estimated 29.1% of the population will be older than 65, while 16.4% will be children.
9. The median age for women is projected to rise to 49.1 years, surpassing men's median age of 46.8 years.
10. Around 2038, the country may see more deaths than births annually.
11. The non-Hispanic white population is expected to decline around 2045, dropping from 58.9% to 44.9% in 2060.
12. The Hispanic population is projected to increase to 26.9% by 2060, up from the current 19.1%.
13. The Black population is likely to remain around 13%.
14. The percentage of foreign-born individuals in the population will rise by 5.6% by 2100.
    Important Considerations:
15. These estimates assume that Earth's conditions will remain relatively unchanged and do not account for factors like human-induced climate change or unforeseen catastrophes.
16. The U.S. labor force is expected to experience minimal annual growth between 2024 and 2031, impacting healthcare expenses, which are projected to surge by over 5% between 2022 and 2031, surpassing the expected growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.