The US may no longer be able to fight more than one major war at a time

The US may no longer be able to fight more than one major war at a time, per BI.

REad full article: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-no-longer-fight-two-major-wars-at-same-time-2023-11

the U.S. could engage and triumph over two adversaries simultaneously. This strategic approach served to deter the Soviet Union and its allies during the lengthy Cold War and allowed the U.S. to confront Afghanistan and Iraq concurrently following the 9/11 attacks.

However, an array of evolving threats, spanning from terrorist groups to a resurgent China, has necessitated a reassessment of this strategy. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the U.S. reduced its military spending amid expectations of a new era of stability.

Despite this reduction, the Pentagon retained the capability to confront two adversaries simultaneously, a capacity tested in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, seeking to reshape the region and mitigate the threat of Islamist militants.

Towards the end of the 2000s, the U.S. confronted new and formidable threats, prompting the Pentagon to revise its plans. Today, the U.S. faces the prospect of conflict with resurgent major powers like Russia and China, both possessing substantial militaries and advanced weaponry.

Over the past decade, these powers have signaled their hostility towards U.S. global dominance and demonstrated a willingness to exert force to extend their influence. Russia's campaign to conquer Ukraine, a U.S. ally, and China's threatening posture towards Taiwan exemplify this shift.

The prospect of the U.S. emerging victorious in two simultaneous conflicts has become increasingly unlikely unless there is a significant increase in defense spending and military expansion, according to Raphael Cohen, an analyst with the RAND Corporation.

However, such a commitment would be challenging in the current political climate. As Cohen notes, "Fighting two wars simultaneously: That's a fairly sizable commitment, particularly once powers become on the scale of China or Russia."

This shift in geopolitical dynamics led to a reconsideration of U.S. military doctrine. Under President Barack Obama, the Pentagon, in 2009, revamped its approach, a decision later endorsed by Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Instead of aiming to win two wars concurrently, the U.S. now focuses on the ability to prevail against a major adversary like China while presenting a formidable deterrent against attacks from other adversaries.

The Pentagon's 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy reflects this strategic adjustment, committing the U.S. to "prevail in conflict" while maintaining the capability to "deter opportunistic aggression elsewhere."

In preparing for the possibility of a new world war, the U.S. must adopt a global perspective. Formerly, the U.S. relied on the division of its enemies and their unlikelihood to unite against a simultaneous attack. However, the alignment and collaboration among U.S. adversaries, including China, Russia, and Iran, have heightened the collective threat.

In a worst-case scenario where multiple nation-state adversaries simultaneously attacked the U.S., the nation would likely engage alongside its allies in various regions. European allies could counter Russian aggression, Middle Eastern allies might confront Iran, and Pacific allies, such as Australia and Japan, would play a pivotal role in repelling Chinese aggression.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is providing valuable insights for the U.S. and its allies, offering crucial lessons on preparations needed to navigate such a multifront scenario, according to Cohen.