Unusual Whales

The ‘vibecession’ is over as optimism gains steam after Trump election, per CNBC

Unusual Whales -

As the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week, Americans are feeling increasingly optimistic about the future.

Despite the strain of prolonged high inflation on household budgets, consumer sentiment about personal finances has improved, according to a new report from the New York Federal Reserve.

In November, 37.6% of households anticipated their financial situation would improve within a year—a significant increase and the highest level recorded since February 2020, just before the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic began to take hold.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also climbed in November, reaching its highest point since July 2023.

Recent studies suggest Americans are making progress toward achieving key financial goals, such as building savings and reducing debt.

  • Nearly 47% of Americans have paid off debt.
  • 39% have established an emergency fund.
  • 32% have started saving for retirement.

These findings, from a September survey of over 1,000 adults by Empower, also indicate that approximately 60% of Americans feel confident about reaching their financial goals.

Growing Optimism

"Optimism has certainly increased in recent weeks," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

According to a Bankrate poll of nearly 2,500 adults conducted in November, 44% of Americans believe their personal financial situation will improve in 2025. Among them, 14% anticipate it will improve significantly.

Strong labor market conditions are contributing to this optimism. Average hourly earnings have risen 1.3% compared to last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%.

“That’s where the ability to pay down debt comes from,” McBride explained.