Trump Approval Hits 37% in WSJ Poll, Lowest Pre-Midterm Since 1990

President Trump’s approval rating has slipped to 37% in a new Wall Street Journal poll, the lowest reading for any president heading into a midterm election in the outlet’s surveys dating back to 1990. With the November 3 vote roughly a month away, the number sets a challenging backdrop for Republicans and adds a political risk layer traders will be watching into year-end.

What the poll says

According to the survey, the poll of 1,500 registered voters, conducted September 16-21, found that 61 percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The closest presidential job approval to Trump’s shortly before the midterms was that of former President George W. Bush, at 39 percent in his second term.

The economy is the sore spot

A Wall Street Journal survey found that 65% of registered voters do not consider the economy strong, while 60% said Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse. That is the number that matters most for markets, because it feeds directly into midterm turnout and the odds of a split Congress.

The poll also found signs of weakness within Trump’s coalition. Eleven percent of voters who backed Trump in the 2024 election said they now regret their vote.

Do you want to see how to make more plays? Do you want to find gains yourself?

Unusual Whales helps you find market opportunities through our market tide, historical options flow, GEX, and much, much more.

Create a free account here to start conquering the market with Unusual Whales.

Cross-checks from other pollsters

The WSJ number is not an outlier. On Sept. 28, RealClearPolitics put the split at 38.7% approval to 59.9% disapproval. The New York Times showed an even wider gap, recording 37% approval and 60% disapproval, while Silver Bulletin’s average stood at 37.4% approval and 60.1% disapproval that day.

Eight out of 10 consider the government shutdown a crisis or a major problem, and 61% disapprove of Trump’s handling of it. A prolonged shutdown risks weighing on Q4 data prints traders already trade around.

Why traders should care

Midterm math directly affects tax, tariff, and regulatory expectations priced into equities. Prediction markets are already active: Polymarket showed active prediction markets on which party would control the Senate after the midterm elections. The platform also offered a separate market on control of the House of Representatives.

A weaker approval print historically correlates with a higher probability of a divided government outcome, which tends to compress policy volatility but can widen sector dispersion, particularly across defense, energy, and healthcare names.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for political-sensitivity trades to pick up flow into November:

LMT and RTX: Defense names typically react to changes in congressional composition and the defense appropriations calendar tied to a shutdown resolution.

UNH: Healthcare and managed care are sensitive to midterm outcomes given ACA subsidy and Medicare Advantage debates.

XLE: Energy policy tone, including permitting and Iran-related headlines, can shift with the political backdrop.

SPY: The broad tape often prices a modest volatility premium into midterm week; watch dealer positioning and GEX heading into late October.

Want more market intelligence? Create your free Unusual Whales account for options flow, market tide, GEX, and the full toolkit.