Only 26% of Americans Approve of Trump's Handling of the Economy
The economy was supposed to be Trump's strong suit. Not anymore. A new AP-NORC poll finds that just 26% of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low.
The Numbers
His 26% approval on the economy marks a 14 percentage point drop from March 2025, just after he took office for a second time. That is a stunning reversal on the issue that was often a point of strength during his first term.
The damage goes wider than the economy. Only about 3 in 10 Americans approve of how Trump is handling his job as president overall. About 6 in 10 say the country is "much" or "somewhat" worse off than when his second term began.
His grade on the economy now rivals Biden's 28% approval in June 2022, when inflation was at record highs during the pandemic. The difference: in October 2022, only 44% of Americans blamed Biden's policies for high prices. Now 65% blame Trump's policies directly.
Midterms Loom
The timing could not be worse for Republicans. The dismal numbers land just weeks before November midterm elections that will determine whether the GOP keeps control of Congress.
Trump is hitting the campaign trail with an aggressive rally schedule and has asked voters to pretend he is on the ballot to drive turnout. But even many Republicans are faulting him for failing to deliver the economic relief he promised on the 2024 campaign trail.
Trade policy is a growing liability. Only about 3 in 10 approve of his handling of trade negotiations, down from about 4 in 10 in March. The war with Iran is dragging too: 69% say it has not been worth fighting, and only 28% approve of his handling of Iran.
What It Means for Markets
Policy uncertainty is the trade here. A deeply unpopular president heading into midterms raises the odds of a divided government and choppier policy, from tariffs to fiscal spending. Markets hate uncertainty, and this poll guarantees more of it.
The macro calendar is packed. The Fed decides on rates October 28-29 after hiking to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first hike in three years. September CPI drops October 14. August PCE already showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year.
Broad market gauges to watch:
- SPY: the market's verdict on economic sentiment, in one ticker.
- QQQ: growth stocks are the most exposed to rate-hike repricing.
- IWM: small caps live and die on domestic economic conditions and credit costs.
- XLE: energy stays in play with the Iran conflict keeping oil markets on edge.
Options Market Angle
Election-driven volatility is a classic setup. With midterms weeks away and approval at record lows, expect headline risk to stay elevated across the board.
Index options and broad-market hedges tend to get bid when political uncertainty spikes. Watch put/call skew on SPY and QQQ into the midterms, and keep an eye on rate-sensitive positioning ahead of the October FOMC.
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