Trump: Gas Prices Will Fall Below $2 After November Midterms

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that US gasoline prices will fall below $2 per gallon, but not until after the November midterm elections. The comment ties near-term energy relief to the end of the ongoing Iran war and pushes any pump relief at least eight weeks out.

What Trump actually said

“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews before heading to Texas for the Republican Party's midterm convention. He added that gasoline would eventually fall below $2 a gallon.

“I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” he said. The framing marks a softer timeline than his earlier Truth Social posts suggesting prices would drop the moment the US “wins the war.”

Why prices are elevated

Trump said energy prices that have been elevated due to the Iran war will not come down until after the midterm elections. He also insisted that the war against Iran, now in its seventh month with no obvious resolution in sight, will end “immediately after the election.”

On Wednesday, Brent crude oil, the international standard, surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The index remained above $100 on Thursday. Analysts at Bank of America said this week additional refinery outages in Russia have increased diesel and gas prices globally. This is causing a supply chain disruption.

Do you want to see how to make more plays? Do you want to find gains yourself?

Unusual Whales helps you find market opportunities through our market tide, historical options flow, GEX, and much, much more.

Create a free account here to start conquering the market with Unusual Whales.

The pump reality

On Thursday, AAA reported that the price for a gallon of regular gas is $4.28. Diesel is $5.98 per gallon. Sub-$2 gasoline would require a roughly 50% drop from current levels, something not seen at national scale since the early Covid demand collapse.

Fuel analyst Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy said he is still skeptical of Trump's latest prediction that oil and gas prices will fall after the midterms. “I don't see any guarantees at all of that happening,” De Haan said on X.

Political and economic backdrop

Diesel, which powers much of the economy through trains and trucks that transport goods, could increase the cost of everyday items. Jet fuel prices have also surged, leading U.S. and international carriers to cut flights and raise fares.

Elevated energy costs cut two ways for markets: they pressure consumer names and airlines while lifting integrated oil and E&P earnings.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for continued flow in the energy complex if crude holds above $100:

• XOM — Exxon benefits directly from sustained triple-digit Brent; watch for call activity if the Iran conflict escalates.
• CVX — Chevron is another integrated major leveraged to crude prices; watch for hedging flow.
• USO — The oil ETF is the cleanest proxy for the crude tape into the midterms.
• UAL — Airlines are on the wrong side of jet fuel spikes; watch for downside hedging.
• DAL — Delta faces the same fuel cost pressure; watch put flow if diesel and jet fuel keep climbing.

For more market moving headlines, see other news here.

Want more market intelligence? Create your free Unusual Whales account for options flow, market tide, GEX, and the full toolkit.