Trump Admin Says Prices Are Falling — But Traders Should Watch These Stocks
Messaging vs. Reality: Administration Claims on Prices
On November 9, 2025, Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) stated on ABC’s This Week that “we had to stop the increase first, now we are starting to see prices level off, come down.”
Watch Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's comments (starts at 4:18)
At the same time, Kevin Hassett (Director of the National Economic Council) claimed grocery prices have fallen and real spending power has increased under the Trump administration.
But the broader dataset and public sentiment paint a less rosy picture.
According to an earlier Axios analysis, while inflation has moderated from its 2022 peak, many U.S. consumers still face sharply higher costs—groceries up ~29 % since 2020, rent similar, energy up ~40% — and incremental price gains are still noticeable.
In short: the message is that inflation won’t get you. The market and voters remain skeptical.
Structural Affordability Pressures and Elections
The backdrop matters. The GOP’s recent election losses in places like Virginia and New Jersey were partly driven by affordability concerns—an uncommon dynamic when Republicans are usually seen as stronger on economic issues.
Voters aren’t just looking at big-macro inflation rates. They feel the cost of daily goods: coffee up ~20% year-over-year, ground beef ~15%.
So when the administration says “prices are coming down,” the question becomes: Are these small monthly drops meaningful enough to shift perception? And importantly for traders: could this narrative shift trigger policy or market outcomes that affect stocks and options?
What This Means for Markets & Trading
Macro risk and interest rates
If the administration is correct and inflation is truly decelerating, we could see pressure off the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated rates. A cut-the-risk scenario could boost growth-oriented equities and inflows into risk assets.
If they’re wrong—or if core inflation remains sticky—then rate risk and discount-rate pressure remain, which is bearish for equities broadly.
Stocks & sectors to watch
- Consumer-discretionary / retailers — With inflation being a key cost input, retailers that can absorb or pass through prices may outperform.
- Homebuilders and housing finance — Mortgage rates and affordability go hand-in-hand with rates, inflation, and consumer purchasing power.
- Financials — Banks and lenders adjust their balance sheets based on interest-rate outlooks and credit cycle expectations.
On the options front, volumes and flow in these names may spike if traders anticipate a policy pivot or data surprise.
Hot tickers to monitor via Unusual Whales
- PHM (PulteGroup) — A large homebuilder; sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability.
- DHI (D.R. Horton) & LEN (Lennar Corp.) — Other major homebuilders worth tracking for similar catalysts.
- WMT (Walmart) / TGT (Target) — Retailers exposed to consumer spending, cost-push inflation, and discounting dynamics.
- JPM (JPMorgan) / BAC (Bank of America) — Financials that may respond to changes in interest-rate expectations.
Option-flow watchers: look for increased open interest, large-lot trades, or unusual directional trades in the above names. For instance, a bullish skew in PHM calls could anticipate improved affordability, boosting demand.
Sample Options Strategy Ideas
- If you believe inflation continues to ease and rates fall: Consider vertical call spreads on PHM or LEN to leverage a potential housing recovery.
- If you’re cautious and believe inflation remains sticky: Consider long puts or collars on retail names like WMT or TGT, anticipating margin compression or weaker consumer spending.
- Watch for straddles/strangles in financial stocks around major Fed- or inflation-related events, since earnings could surprise if rates move.
Bottom Line
The Trump administration is pushing a narrative that prices are flattening and affordability is improving. The data is mixed and the market remains vigilant.
For option traders and stock market participants, this story isn’t just political rhetoric—it has real implications for rates, housing, consumer spending, and credit cycles.
Stay alert to policy cues, inflation prints, and unusual options flow in key sectors mentioned above.
If you want to track real-time unusual options flow, set alerts on these tickers, and monitor policy-driven market catalysts, sign up for Unusual Whales — the platform that uncovers unusual activity across stocks, options, and markets.