Trump says "Fed won't cut rates today," and adds: "Hear they will cut in September."
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, resisting mounting pressure from President Donald Trump and his increasingly aggressive criticism.
Although the Fed cut rates several times last fall, it has kept them unchanged through the last four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. That pattern continued this week, with the central bank maintaining its benchmark rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. While down from recent peaks, rates remain significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 1.5% to 1.75%. In its decision, the Fed pointed to a strong labor market and low unemployment as justification for staying the course.
Notably, two Fed governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—dissented from the majority decision, marking the first time in more than three decades that two sitting governors have cast opposing votes in a single meeting.
Despite ongoing warnings from analysts about economic instability—some of it linked to Trump’s tariff policies—the U.S. economy has continued to show signs of strength. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.1% in June and has stayed relatively stable over the past year. Additionally, second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter.
This combination of stable joblessness and a rebound in GDP likely influenced the Fed’s decision to hold off on cuts, even amid growing doubts about the reliability of federal labor data, according to Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust and former Philadelphia Fed adviser.
“When unemployment stays low, GDP turns positive, and there’s no immediate crisis, the Fed is hesitant to suggest rate cuts,” Tilley told Fortune. “Once they open that door, it’s hard to walk it back, and markets tend to surge on the signal alone.”