Trump's Tariffs Made American-Made Goods More Expensive Too, New York Fed Research Finds
New York Fed research finds Trump's tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to goods prices, with roughly a third of the increase coming from American-made products, per Fox News.
Not just imports
Americans are paying more for imports under Trump's tariffs. New research says they are also paying more for goods made in the United States, per Fox News.
The study comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Its researchers estimate tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to prices across the consumer goods they examined.
The striking part is the counterfactual. Without the tariffs, the researchers say, prices for many everyday goods would have fallen last year and into early 2026. Instead, they rose.
How the tariff tax reaches the shelf
The mechanics are fast at the border. Nearly 90 percent of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to US import prices, and import prices responded almost immediately.
Retail prices move more slowly because distribution, transport and wholesaling sit between the port and the shelf. The researchers estimate that when tariff-driven import and producer prices rise 10 percent, consumer prices rise about 5.6 percent, so roughly a quarter of a tariff increase lands in consumer prices within a year.
Roughly two-thirds of the total price increase came from imports. About one-third came from domestic goods, through two channels: US factories pay more for imported steel, parts and materials, and US producers face less pressure to hold prices down once imported rivals get more expensive.
Domestic goods also respond on a lag, six to 12 months, as higher input costs work through supply chains. The political timing is sharp: the findings land about a month before the midterm elections, with inflation again the top voter issue.
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Options market and stocks to watch
Domestic producers with imported inputs sit at the center of this. F and the automakers face the input-cost channel directly, while NUE and X show the other side of the trade, where protection lifts domestic steel pricing power.
WMT is the cleanest read on pass-through: if the biggest retailer in the country is raising shelf prices, the tariff is reaching the consumer.
The bigger trade is rates. Tariff-driven goods inflation limits how fast the Fed can cut, which keeps SPY and rate-sensitive names hostage to every inflation print. Watch put flow in consumer discretionary if follow-up data confirms the NY Fed's numbers, and track the story on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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