Trump: There is hardly any inflation at all

The producer price index (PPI) posted its sharpest increase in more than three years last month, signaling that President Trump’s tariffs are beginning to meaningfully push up the cost of imported goods.

According to the Labor Department, wholesale prices jumped 0.9% in July from the previous month, far exceeding economists’ forecasts for a 0.2% gain. The surge — the largest since June 2022 — suggests inflationary pressures are building before prices even reach consumers.

While consumer price growth has remained relatively subdued in 2025, many economists had warned that Trump’s sweeping tariff program would eventually lift costs for both businesses and households. Earlier in the year, some importers buffered the impact by stockpiling goods and absorbing tariffs to protect shoppers, but those measures were only temporary.

The latest PPI data indicates those buffers are fading. “Tariff-exposed goods are rising at a rapid clip, indicating that the willingness and ability of businesses to absorb tariff costs may be waning,” Oxford Economics wrote in a Thursday note, adding that price increases were broad-based across wholesale categories. The firm expects “broader signs of tariff-driven inflation” to emerge as inventories turn over and companies adjust prices under margin strain.

This wholesale inflation reading comes just two days after the July Consumer Price Index — which tracks prices for everyday goods and services — rose 2.7% year-over-year, slightly cooler than economists had projected.

“The new tariffs are continuing to generate cost pressures in the supply chain, which consumers will shoulder soon,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.