Trump Says US Is Not Negotiating With Iran, and Something Will Happen Fairly Soon
President Trump has said the United States is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen fairly soon, as reports say the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes after the midterm elections.
No talks, and something coming fairly soon
President Trump has said the United States is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen fairly soon.
"No, I think we're not negotiating," Trump told reporters on Wednesday, returning from a rally in South Carolina. "We are going to have something one way or the other that'll happen fairly soon." He added that most people seem to think it comes after the election, referring to the US midterms. At the rally itself, Trump said the US could end its war with Iran immediately but wants to make sure the outcome lasts, and he insisted Tehran would never have a nuclear weapon.
Strike plans have reportedly been drawn up
His comments landed alongside reports that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, potentially a short, intensive operation targeting nuclear and energy facilities as well as missile and drone systems. It is far from certain Trump would approve the plans: he has repeatedly vetoed proposals to resume major combat operations this year, and a White House official declined to comment on military plans that may or may not exist.
The military posture is shifting in the meantime. The US has quietly reduced troop levels at bases across the Middle East in recent days, including in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait, in response to ongoing threats from Iran, and Israel's air force staged a show of force near the Iranian border this week.
How the standoff got here
The US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28, and Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies. A memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran in June, after mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, has since stalled amid disagreements, including over navigation through the strait. That leaves markets trading every headline between a negotiated outcome and a renewed bombing campaign.
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Options market and stocks to watch
Crude is the first read on any Iran headline, which puts Exxon Mobil and Chevron in focus, with the Strait of Hormuz still the single biggest supply risk in the market. Defense names are the second read: Lockheed Martin and RTX tend to catch a bid whenever renewed strikes move from planning to probability. Watch the midterm calendar, any change in US force posture in the region, and tanker traffic through Hormuz, and follow the story on the Unusual Whales news feed.
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