Tucker Carlson: GOP Will Lose in November Over Trump’s Foreign Policy

Tucker Carlson is publicly telling his audience that Republicans are heading for a loss in the November midterms, arguing that President Trump has prioritized a foreign country over the voters who put him in office. The message lands as GOP enthusiasm data softens and as markets brace for a possible power shift in Washington.

What Carlson said

In a video streamed on September 9, 2026, Carlson framed the coming midterms as a referendum on what he called a betrayal of the MAGA base. He said Republicans are going to lose in November because Trump chose a foreign country over his own voters, and promised to detail how deep the betrayal is.

The comments extend a running feud. Earlier this year, Carlson told the “Can’t be Censored” podcast there is no chance he would support the Republican Party this fall because he cannot back a political party that puts the interest of a foreign country above those of its own citizens, referring to Israel.

Why it matters for markets

Carlson’s reach still moves the conversation on the populist right, even if his standing inside the party has weakened. His favorability among Republicans collapsed from 63% in December 2025 to 17% overall by March 2026, according to a YouGov/UMass Lowell survey.

The setup around November is already tilting. Polling indicates a Democratic advantage, particularly among women, and Trump’s approval has slipped, threatening Republican control of the House. A divided Congress typically means less legislative risk on taxes and regulation, and more focus on executive-branch policy.

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The Iran overhang

The foreign policy backdrop matters for energy and defense tape. The war in Iran is not considered widely successful among Republicans, and Trump’s approval ratings have fallen as the war has pushed energy prices higher.

Traders have watched crude and defense primes react to every escalation headline out of the Middle East. A political shift that pressures the White House to de-escalate would carry direct implications for those names.

Options market and stocks to watch

Watch for continued sensitivity in defense and energy tickers tied to Middle East policy and midterm expectations:

• LMT: Watch for flow around any shift in Iran posture or defense spending rhetoric.
• RTX: Watch for positioning tied to missile-defense demand as the conflict narrative evolves.
• XOM: Watch crude-linked flow if de-escalation talk cools energy prices.
• USO: Watch for hedging activity around any Middle East headline risk.
• SPY: Watch for broader risk repricing as midterm odds shift and political headlines accelerate.

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