U.S. birth rate hits all-time low

The U.S. fertility rate fell to a record low in 2024, with fewer than 1.6 children born per woman, according to new federal data released Thursday by the CDC.

For decades, the U.S. maintained a birth rate that ensured population replacement — about 2.1 children per woman. But that trend has steadily eroded over the last 20 years as more women delay childbearing or choose not to have children at all. The latest figure now places the U.S. in line with much of Western Europe, World Bank data shows.

The Trump administration has voiced alarm over the decline. In February, it issued an executive order aimed at making in vitro fertilization more affordable and accessible, while also floating the idea of “baby bonuses” to incentivize couples to have children. White House staff secretary Will Scharf noted at the time that IVF has become prohibitively expensive for many families, with costs often running into tens of thousands of dollars and limited insurance coverage.

Still, not everyone sees the drop as cause for panic. Leslie Root, a University of Colorado Boulder researcher specializing in fertility and demographic policy, described it as part of a long-term trend of delayed parenthood. “We’re seeing fertility shifts, but the U.S. population is still growing, with more births than deaths,” she said.

CDC figures highlight the longer historical context. The U.S. fertility rate averaged 3.5 in the early 1960s before collapsing to 1.7 in the mid-1970s after the Baby Boom ended. It eventually rebounded to replacement level in 2007 but has been sliding ever since, aside from a brief uptick in 2014. In 2023, the rate stood at 1.621 before dipping again to 1.599 in 2024.

Demographers say broader social and economic pressures are weighing on families’ decisions. Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at UNC, said Americans are marrying later and increasingly concerned about the affordability of raising children. “Worry is not a good moment to have kids,” she explained, noting that anxiety about costs, housing, and childcare has suppressed birth rates across nearly all age groups.

Asked about the administration’s policies, Guzzo argued that they don’t address structural issues like paid parental leave or affordable childcare. “The things they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans,” she said.

The new CDC report, based on a complete review of 2024 birth certificates, also noted a modest 1% increase in total births — about 33,000 more than the previous year — even as the fertility rate itself continued to edge lower.