U.S. economy should take off by fourth quarter, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the U.S. economy is set to accelerate by the fourth quarter as President Trump’s policy changes take hold.

Bessent argued that despite government data showing inflation edging higher and the labor market weakening, the administration believes the fundamentals point to stronger growth ahead. “We believe that good policies are in place that are going to create good, high-paying jobs for the American people,” Bessent said during an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press.

He dismissed Friday’s weak jobs report, continuing the administration’s claim that recent labor data is flawed. Trump has already fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, alleging without evidence that the agency manipulated the numbers against him. “President Trump was elected for change, and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right,” Bessent said. “I believe by the fourth quarter we are going to see a substantial acceleration.”

The U.S. economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter before rebounding to 3.3% growth in the second. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects a 3% pace for the third quarter. Some investors appear to share Bessent’s optimism: prediction market Polymarket saw recession odds for 2025 fall to an all-time low on Friday.