UBS has said: the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year and five more times next year

Investors are scaling back their expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, as robust economic data strengthens the belief that the central bank will need to maintain higher borrowing costs to tackle inflation.

The market now anticipates two quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, with only a 50% chance of a third cut. This marks a significant shift from the beginning of the year, when between six and seven cuts were projected.

Evan Brown, portfolio manager and head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management, noted, "We’re having a number of clients ask us, ‘why is the Fed going to cut rates at all?’ That’s really picked up over the last month or so. With the economy this strong, policy isn’t as restrictive as the Fed thinks it is."

Blockbuster jobs data released on Friday has reinforced the growing belief that the Fed may delay rate cuts until it is certain that inflation is nearing its 2% target.

Since December, the Fed has indicated that it expects to cut its key interest rate by the equivalent of three quarter-point cuts this year, from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Speaking after Friday’s figures, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said it was “much too soon” to think about cutting rates, while Fed governor Michelle Bowman said progress on reducing inflation “has stalled of late”.

Pimco, a leading bond fund, revised its forecast to two cuts this year, down from three previously.

Jon Day, a portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, commented, “The vast majority of people I speak to don’t think inflation will come back to 2 per cent sustainably. We think central banks are being too dovish.”

Lara Rhame, US economist at FS Investments, suggested that yields on ten-year bonds could drift higher and retest 5% over the course of the year. She believes the Fed will make fewer cuts than initially signaled, or perhaps not cut at all, adopting a more selective approach.

Investors may gain more clarity on the interest rate outlook when the US releases inflation data for March on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline annual rate to rise to 3.4%. The five-year, five-year forward break-even rate, a key indicator of long-term US inflation expectations, has edged up to 2.26%, from 2.15% at the start of the year, partly due to a recent surge in oil prices.

Chair Jay Powell has cautioned that “it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump” in inflation.